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POLL-Japan investor sentiment bounces off all-time low

Published 04/22/2009, 11:49 PM
Updated 04/22/2009, 11:56 PM
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* Stock sentiment index jumps record amount to minus 20

* Bearish mood prevails as global recession grinds on

* Investors see dollar testing higher vs yen in 2009

* 24 pct see dollar in Y105-110 range, 14 pct see Y110-115

By Chikafumi Hodo and Mari Terawaki

TOKYO, April 23 (Reuters) - Japanese retail investor sentiment on the stock market made a record jump in April from an all-time low hit the previous three month, a Reuters survey showed.

Cash-rich Japanese investors' confidence in the domestic stock market brightened on the view that prices have bottomed out with the benchmark Nikkei average rising about 25 percent over the last month, investors said.

The dollar's recovery to above 100 yen at the time of the April 6-9 survey also supported share prices.

In the survey, nearly 60 percent of respondents said the dollar was likely to test the upside against the yen for the rest of the year. Nearly 25 percent expected the dollar's high for this year to be around 105-110 yen.

The investor sentiment index in the survey in April leapt a record 54 points to minus 20 -- the best result since June 2008 -- after slumping to a historic low of minus 74 the previous month, the survey showed.

March's reading was the lowest since Reuters began the survey in January 2006.

The index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of investors who say they are bearish from those who are bullish.

The Nikkei share average jumped to a three-month closing high of 8,916.06 hit on the final day of the survey, rebounding more than 25 percent from a 26-year closing low of 7,054.98 plumbed on March 10.

"The (Prime Minister Taro) Aso administration has crafted a larger stimulus package than other countries in terms of GDP and this should give a temporary boost to the market," a 30-year-old student said in the survey.

"Japanese stocks have simply been oversold looking at the price-to-book ratio at just around 1."

Japan announced in early April its largest ever economic stimulus package, worth about 15.4 trillion yen ($158 billion) or about 3.1 percent of nominal gross domestic product.

Market bulls in the survey responded that they were expecting to see some bargain-hunting as other countries continued to take strong action to fight the recession.

"Share prices may be bottoming out after seeing adjustments in inventories and production, but we cannot be too optimistic as now we have to see actual improvements in domestic demand," a 40-year-old office worker said.

Still, uncertainty in Japanese share prices prevailed as continuing global recession was expected to weigh on the export-led Japanese economy, investors said.

"The slowdown in global demand is expected to continue longer and the slowdown in Japanese consumption is expected to start soon," said a 40-year-old public servant.

In the survey, nearly 60 percent of respondents said the dollar would test the upper side against the yen for the rest of the year.

Twenty-four percent of respondents -- the biggest percentage -- forecast that the dollar would be in a range of 110-115 yen. The second-highest was 14.2 percent who forecast a dollar/yen rate of 110-115 yen.

The dollar was trading at 97.63 yen on Thursday after hitting a six-month peak of 101.45 yen on April 6.

The survey showed a record 40 percent of investors said they are either already trading currencies on margin or thinking of doing so in the future. (Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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