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POLL-Japan GDP seen contracting record 4.2 pct in Q1

Published 05/08/2009, 04:01 AM
Updated 05/08/2009, 04:24 AM

By Akiko Takeda

TOKYO, May 8 (Reuters) - Japan's economy probably shrank 4.2 percent in the first quarter, a Reuters poll of economists showed, putting the world's No.2 economy in line for its deepest quarterly contraction in modern history.

Coming after a 3.2 percent fall in October-December GDP, the expected decline would mark the fourth straight quarter of economic contraction and would wipe out all of Japan's growth since mid-2003. In annualised terms, the forecast Q1 contraction is 15.6 percent.

Shocks from a halving in exports from a year earlier are spilling over to domestic demand through job cuts, factory closures and a record slide in capital spending by companies.

"As corporate earnings are deteriorating sharply due to a sharp slowdown in the world economy, the fall in capital spending is accelerating," said Taro Saito, economist at NLI Research Institute.

Preliminary GDP figures are due at 8:50 a.m. on May 20 (2350 GMT May 19). (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Rodney Joyce)

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