POLL-Japan fund managers favour bonds over stocks

Published 09/29/2010, 11:31 PM
Updated 09/29/2010, 11:36 PM

* Weight for bonds up for first time since June on pessimism

* But allocation for equities highest since March

* Cash positions at lowest this year

By Akiko Takeda

TOKYO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Japanese fund managers raised their weightings for both bonds and equities in September, but allocated more to debt as uncertainty on the global economic outlook remained, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The rapid rise of the yen intensified concerns over the outlook for the export-led Japanese economy, prompting players to lift their weighting on bonds for the first time in three months.

The survey was conducted when the yen hit a 15-year high against the dollar, driving Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market for first time in more than six years.

Sentiment towards the global economy has improved recently, but there is no convincing evidence of a sustained recovery, fund managers said.

"If the Federal Reserve decides to ease its credit then the Bank of Japan is expected to follow suit," said Yuichi Kodama, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Life.

"The key Japanese government bond yield is not expected to sharply break below 1 percent, but JGB yields are expected to be put under downward pressure from October onwards," he added.

Fund managers' weighting for bonds climbed for the first time in three months to 48.5 percent in September, from 47.9 percent the previous month, the survey showed.

The Reuters poll of 13 asset management companies was conducted from September 15-27, when the yield on the key 10-year Japanese government bond briefly rose near 1.2 percent, but it stayed under downward pressure due to perceptions on the possibility of further credit easing by Japanese and U.S. central banks.

Japan's key Nikkei stock average recovered to around 9,700 after slipping to this year's low of below 9,000.

As Japanese and global shares rebounded during the month, fund managers raised their exposure to equities for the second straight month to the highest level since March.

A series of weak U.S. economic indicators heightened pessimism in the country, dragging down global share prices in August, but that exaggerated view was corrected this month, fund managers said.

"We have been reducing risk in our overall portfolio on views that Europe's fiscal problems would weigh on the global economy," said a fund manager at a Japanese asset management company.

"But we are changing that perception as we are planning to raise our weighting on equities towards 50 (percent) based on our forecast of higher share prices and a rise in bond yields."

Fund managers raised their average weighting for stocks for the second straight month to a six-month high of 45.7 percent in September from 45.2 percent the previous month.

Their cash positions dropped to the lowest level this year of 2.9 percent from 4.0 percent in August.

The weighting for real estate fell to 1.3 percent in September from 1.5 percent, while the allocation for alternative investments inched up to 1.5 percent from 1.4 percent.

In terms of regional equities allocations, weightings for the euro zone rose to 14.6 percent -- the highest this year.

The perception of the European economy improved on views that the euro's weakness would help boost exports from the region, fund managers said.

Fund managers raised their weighting for Asian equities to 11.7 percent -- the highest since July 1996.

In contrast, fund managers cut their stock weightings for Japan to the lowest level this year.

Fund managers' weighting for bonds in the euro zone rose to 28 percent in September after hitting a record low of 25.5 percent in August. (Writing by Chikafumi Hodo; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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