* Stimulus-led consumer spending probably steady in Q3
* Growth seen slowing to near zero towards Q1 2010
* Capital spending shows signs of bottoming out
By Akiko Takeda
Tokyo, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Japan's economy likely extended its rebound for the second straight quarter in July-September on the continuing effects of government stimulus and a belated pickup in corporate capital spending, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Analysts expect the economy to have grown 0.7 percent in the third quarter following a 0.6 percent rise in the previous quarter when the economy pulled out of its worst recession in decades.
On an annualised basis, the median forecast of 19 economists was for a 2.9 percent expansion, the biggest gain in six quarters though smaller than a 3.5 percent expansion in the U.S. economy in July-September.
"Personal consumption likely remained as strong as the previous quarter, with government stimulus pushing up sales of automobiles and consumer electronics goods," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities in Tokyo.
"As long as the government maintains its current programmes for assisting households, the stimulus effect is expected to be sustained and to help lift consumption of durable goods towards the year-end," she said. "In this respect, the risk of a double dip that has been feared by markets will remain low."
Personal consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, is seen rising 0.5 percent in July-September following a 0.7 percent rise in the prior quarter, thanks to tax breaks and subsidies for low-emission vehicles and eco-friendly electronic goods.
External demand, measured as exports minus imports, probably contributed much less to the increase in Japan's gross domestic product chiefly due to an upturn in imports in a sign of newfound strength in domestic consumption.
Companies probably increased capital spending by 0.1 percent, following a 4.8 percent plunge in the prior quarter, backed by a recovery in earnings, the poll showed.
Preliminary third-quarter GDP figures are due at 8:50 a.m. on Nov. 16 (2350 GMT Nov. 15).
The poll also showed economists expect growth to shrink to 0.4 percent in October-December and to 0.1 percent in January-March next year.
Many economists attributed the slowdown to reduced public spending as the new Democratic Party-led government has suspended part of plans for spending on public works projects formulated by the previous government.
"Growth in exports will likely help corporate capital spending bottom out," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan.
"But job and income conditions are expected to become even tougher towards the first half of 2010 and as a result the Democrats' policies will become more important," he said. "We may have to wait until October-December 2010 for the Decmorats' policies to start pushing up GDP."
The Democrat government has pledged to put more money in the hands of consumers through such measures as toll-free expressways and child allowances.
Following is a table of Japan GDP forecasts for July-September, with figures showing percentage change, except for external demand contributions which are in percentage points:
Q3 GDP ANNUALISED CONSUMPTION CAPEX EXTERNAL ---------------------------------------------------------------- Median 0.7 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 High 0.9 3.6 0.9 3.8 0.5 Low 0.3 1.2 0.1 -2.2 -0.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Japan Research 0.9 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 Nomura Securities 0.8 3.3 0.3 1.8 0.2 Morgan Stanley 0.8 3.2 0.7 3.8 -0.2 Shinko Research 0.8 3.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 BTM-UFJ 0.7 3.0 0.4 -1.5 0.5 JP Morgan 0.7 3.0 0.6 3.6 0.2 Shinkin C. Bank 0.7 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 RBS 0.7 3.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 Mitsubishi Sec. 0.7 2.9 0.4 0.9 0.4 Itochu Corp. 0.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.2 Norinchukin Res. 0.6 2.5 0.6 -2.2 0.3 Mitsubishi Res. 0.6 2.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 Daiwa Research 0.5 2.1 0.5 1.3 0.3 NLI Research 0.5 2.1 0.5 -0.6 0.3 Barclays Capital 0.5 1.9 0.6 -0.2 0.5 Calyon 0.4 1.7 0.9 -1.6 0.4 Meiji-Yasuda 0.4 1.7 0.4 -1.7 0.4 Monex 0.4 1.6 0.5 -0.8 0.4 UFJ Research 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 (Writing and additional reporting by Rie Ishiguro)