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POLL-German Q1 GDP seen showing record contraction

Published 05/08/2009, 10:54 AM
Updated 05/08/2009, 10:56 AM

* What: preliminary German Q1 GDP

* When: May 15, 0600 GMT

* GDP seen contracting 3.0 pct q/q

BERLIN, May 8 (Reuters) - The German economy probably shrank by 3.0 percent in the first quarter of this year, registering its deepest contraction since reunification in 1990, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Forecasts in the poll of 45 economists ranged from a contraction of 1.2 percent to a 4.0-percent slump , with the mid-range forecast a 3.0 percent quarter-on-quarter fall. Year-on-year, the poll called for Europe's largest economy to contract by 6.1 percent.

The Economy Ministry has already said gross domestic product (GDP) likely declined by around 3.5 percent during the first quarter. In the final quarter of last year, the economy shrank 2.1 percent.

The first quarter was weighed down by a collapse in industrial output, which fell by 12 percent from the previous three-month period, the Economy Ministry said earlier on Friday.

Germany, the world's biggest exporter of goods since 2003, is expected to see its economy shrink around 6 percent this year, dragged down by a slump in exports.

That would be nearly seven times worse than Germany's previous poorest performance in any year since World War Two.

However, data this week suggested the economy may soon begin pulling out of recession. Industry output was unchanged on the month in March, snapping a run of six consecutive falls. Exports posted their first rise in six months in March.

A jump in foreign demand fuelled a surprise surge in German manufacturing orders in March, data released on Thursday showed. (Reporting by Bangalore polling team; editing by Patrick Graham)

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