* Export sector will fuel recovery in 2010
* Joblessness to rise, dampening private consumption
By Sarah Marsh and Kristina Mignon
BERLIN, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The German economy is likely to stage a steady recovery over the coming year, with a rise in exports compensating for weaker private consumption, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Thursday.
The median forecast in the survey of 20 economists showed gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe's largest economy growing 1.3 percent in 2010 after contracting 5 percent this year.
"Growth will pick up, but it won't be as strong as in the past," said Arnd Schaefer, economist at WestLB. "The really strong year will be 2012."
Germany emerged from its deepest post-war recession in the second quarter, when the economy grew by 0.3 percent.
The Reuters poll predicted GDP would rise by another 0.7 percent in the third quarter just ended, in line with the Bundesbank's forecast. The consensus is pointing to a weaker expansion of 0.3 percent in the current quarter.
The German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) said on Wednesday that Germany was recovering faster than expected and business expectations were at their highest level since mid-2008.
A strong pick-up in exports is seen driving the recovery after Germany, the world's top exporter of goods, was hit particularly hard by the global slump.
Exports are seen slumping 14.8 percent in 2009, before rising 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and 5.7 percent over the course of the year, according to the Reuters poll.
WEAKER PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
Still, economists fear foreign and domestic demand is being driven by global government stimulus measures and a self-sustaining recovery is still not on the horizon.
"When the stimulus packages run out, the recovery will become more moderate once again," said Alexander Koch, economist at UniCredit.
Unemployment is also a serious concern. It is seen averaging 8.3 percent in 2009 and 9.8 percent in 2010, weighing on private consumption which is forecast to start falling in the second quarter of next year, dipping 0.4 percent over the full year.
"Fear of job losses dampens private consumption," said Koch.
So far consumers have shrugged off worries over joblessness, with morale rising to its highest level in 16 months heading into October on growing confidence the economy has passed its low point, according to the GfK research group. Analysts say a government scheme that encourages firms to put employees on part-time work rather than fire them has so far offset the real impact of the downturn on the German labour market and job losses are likely to accelerate in the coming months.
(Additional Reporting by Klaus Lauer; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)