POLL-European shares seen rising 13 percent in 2011

Published 03/24/2011, 10:16 AM
Updated 03/24/2011, 10:20 AM

* STOXX 50 seen at 2,950 by mid-2011, 3,150 by end-2011

* Expected annual gain of 13 percent vs 6 percent fall in 2010

By Anooja Debnath and Yati Himatsingka

BANGALORE, March 24 (Reuters) - European stocks are set to climb steadily through the year, as positive corporate earnings and a possible resolution to the nagging euro zone debt crisis buoys investor sentiment, a Reuters poll showed.

To some, European stocks still look cheap after the near 6 percent slide in pan-European averages in 2010, when euro zone sentiment was knocked by bailouts for both Greece and Ireland and policymakers scrambled to contain the crisis.

The Euro STOXX 50 blue chip index is expected to touch 2,950 points by mid-2011, up nearly 6 percent from last year's close according to a poll of 36 strategists, taken over the past week. It is then expected to rise to 3,150 by the end of 2011, a gain of almost 13 percent.

The poll also showed the broader Euro STOXX 600 ending 2011 at 305 points, a rise of around 11 percent versus the 9 percent gain seen last year.

"European earnings growth will be double-digit this year, underpinning the equity markets. This is coupled currently with very attractive valuations levels," said Gerhard Schwarz, Head of Equity Strategy at Baader Bank.

The Euro STOXX 50 index fell 7 percent in six trading sessions in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake in Japan but is still up around 3 percent so far this year.

The polls showed Germany's benchmark DAX index and France's CAC 40 are expected to close this year around 11 percent and 13 percent higher than last year's official close respectively.

Britain's FTSE 100 is seen ending the year at 6,250 points, gaining around 6 percent from 2010's close.

"There are quite a few risk factors in the market. Japan, the Middle East, the oil price, food inflation, can act as a catalyst to provoke a correction in the markets," said Philippe Gijsels at BNP Paribas Fortis Capital Markets.

The biggest macroeconomic risk so far to European shares has been the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone's periphery.

EU leaders meet Thursday and Friday to try to hammer out a long-term solution and put an end to speculation over which country is next to follow Greece and Ireland.

Portugal inched closer to seeking a bailout, which a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect to happen, and perhaps very soon.

Portugal Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned on Wednesday after parliament rejected his government's latest set of austerity proposals aimed at trying to avoid EU assistance to get its finances back in order.

But increasingly Spain, which months ago was subject to speculation it too would need a bailout, is no longer in the market's crosshairs.

At the same time, positive economic data out of the euro area, led by its strongest economies, Germany and France, is likely to lend further support to European shares more broadly.

The euro zone flash PMIs for March pointed to a strong quarter for economic growth, 0.8 percent or even higher compared with a more tepid 0.3 percent quarterly rate at the end of 2010.

The economic data have been strong enough, along with a pickup in inflation, for the European Central Bank to give clear signals that interest rates will rise next month from their record low of 1.0 percent.

(Additional reporting by Sumanta Dey) (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

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