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POLL-China inflation to ease sharply in November

Published 12/08/2008, 03:55 AM
Updated 12/08/2008, 04:00 AM
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* What: China November inflation data

* When: PPI on Wednesday, Dec. 10; CPI on Thursday, Dec. 11

* CPI, PPI both likely to drop further

BEIJING, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The slide in China's consumer price inflation probably accelerated last month as food and commodity prices tumbled, silencing any concern about price pressures but also furnishing evidence of a steep drop in consumer demand.

The median forecast of 30 economists polled by Reuters is for consumer prices to have risen 3.0 percent in November, down sharply from 4.0 percent in October and well below a near 12-year high of 8.7 percent in February.

Falling energy and commodity prices also dragged down producer prices. The median forecast for producer inflation was 4.4 percent, off from 6.6 percent in October and an August peak of 10.1 percent.

Analysts said food prices likely fell further and non-food prices eased as the economic gloom mounted.

"Weaker end demand may have weighed on the corporate pricing power," J.P. Morgan economists said in a note to clients.

Forecasts (percentage change from a year earlier)

Institution CPI PPI

HSBC 2.5 5.0

Standard Chartered 2.6 3.3

Goldman Sachs 2.6 4.2

CICC 2.7 4.5

Merrill Lynch 2.7 2.8

Bank of Communications 2.8 4.7

China Construction Bank 2.8 4.0

Industrial Bank 2.8 3.5

Bank of East Asia 2.9 4.2

Citi 2.9 ~

Guotai Junan Securities 2.9 3.8

Minzu Securities 3.0 3.8

Shanghai Securities 3.0 4.1

Deutsche Bank 3.0 5.0

Hang Seng 3.0 ~

Nomura 3.0 3.5

Guosen Securities 3.0 6.0

Galaxy Asset Management 3.0 4.2

Guoyuan Securities 3.1 5.2

J.P. Morgan 3.1 5.0

RBS 3.2 5.5

Action Economics 3.2 5.5

UBS 3.3 5.4

ING 3.4 4.5

ANZ 3.4 ~

Barclays Capital 3.5 4.2

Daiwa Institute of Research 3.5 ~

Moody's Economy.com 3.5 4.5

High Frequency Economics 3.7 4.2

Straszheim Global Advisors 4.0 6.6

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Median 3.0 4.4

Previous month 4.0 6.6

Year earlier 6.9 4.6

~Not available (Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Jan Dahinten)

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