* Poll sees 8.3 pct China GDP growth in 2009, 9 pct next yr
* Inflation to return in 2010, averaging 2.5 pct
* Trade surplus to narrow to $188 bln in 2010
By Susan Fenton
HONG KONG, Oct 13 (Reuters) - China's economic growth will easily reach its 8 percent target this year and will increase to 9 percent in 2010 as it leads major countries in the rebound from the global downturn, a Reuters poll shows.
A survey of 18 economists conducted last week shows that the world's third-largest economy is on a sustainable recovery track.
It forecast that gross domestic product will increase by 8.3 percent this year, supported by strong domestic demand and the government's $585 billion fiscal stimulus package.
The latest growth forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the median results of a previous quarterly survey in July and reflect signs that the economic upturn is accelerating.
"China's economy is recovering faster than expected. The driver of growth is mainly due to domestic demand, led particularly by strong investment growth and resilient consumption," said Zhu Yuande, an analyst at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.
"However, exports and imports still show no signs of rebound."
Stronger growth will trigger the return of inflation, with consumer prices forecast to rise 2.5 percent, reversing a projected 0.7 percent fall this year, the poll shows.
However, consumer price inflation would be well below the rates of 5.9 percent and 4.8 percent recorded in 2008 and 2007, respectively.
China's economy appears to be gathering speed: an official purchasing managers' index hit a 17-month high in September, showing big improvements in employment and new export orders.
Car sales nearly doubled in August from a year earlier, helped by tax breaks on small cars and rebates in rural areas.
Economists are confident domestic demand will remain robust next year even as the impact of the fiscal stimulus wears off.
However, China will have to keep its accommodative policies in place for now to keep growth going, analysts say.
That was underlined by China's top banking regulator, Liu Mingkang. He said on Friday that it was too early to talk about exiting stimulative policies as the global financial crisis is not over yet. [ID:nHKG17147]
Many analysts have been surprised by the double-digit drop in China's exports this year given the country's dominance in producing low-end goods, which tend to find favour from buyers during a global recession.
The poll forecast the export slump will squeeze the country's trade surplus to $204 billion this year and $188.3 billion in 2010, from around $296 billion in 2008.
The forecasts were narrower than in the previous quarterly poll. In contrast, CLSA forecast that China's trade position will swing to a $140 billion trade deficit next year after a decade of surging exports.
"Stimulus will boost domestic demand but the export outlook will still be weak, certainly in the first half of the year given continued weakness in the U.S. economy," said Tony Nafte, an economist at CLSA. LINKS: