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POLL-China exports, imports return to growth in November

Published 12/07/2009, 06:14 PM
Updated 12/07/2009, 06:18 PM

* What: China November trade data

* When: Due on Friday, Dec. 11, no fixed time.

* Exports nudge back to growth, imports seen up 20 pct y/y

BEIJING, Dec 7 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports both posted annual growth in November, ending a 12-month streak of falls brought on by the global financial crisis, according to a Reuters poll.

The median forecast of 27 economists is for exports to have risen 0.9 percent in November compared with a year earlier, improving from October's 13.8 percent annual drop.

Imports, buoyed by strengthening domestic demand, are likely to have grown by 20.0 percent from a year earlier, a marked improvement from the 6.4 percent drop a month earlier.

The year-on-year comparisons will be flattered by the low base of comparison last November, when the impact of the financial crisis prompted a sudden contraction in Chinese exports and imports.

The resulting trade surplus in November will narrow slightly to $23.8 billion from $24.0 billion in October, according to the median forecast, but still be significantly lower than the surplus of $40.1 billion last November.

Other data due this week are expected to show that activity in the world's third-largest economy has continued to accelerate, with industrial output growing at its fastest pace since September 2007 and inflationary pressures on the rise.

But authorities have promised to keep policy on an even keel as they wait to see whether the recovery is on solid footing, as reaffirmed by the conclusions of the government's annual economic policy-making conference on Monday.

FORECASTS

(Surplus expressed as $bln; exports and imports as percent change from a year earlier)

Surplus Exports Imports BNP Paribas 19.0 0.9 16.2 BoA-Merrill Lynch 24.6 5.9 30.1 Bohai Securities 16.8 14.4 20.0 Capital Economics 23.1 -1.8 20.0 CICC 27.7 -1.0 15.0 CITIC Securities 23.0 3.5 28.5 Deutsche Bank 36.0 3.0 10.0 Essence Securities 37.0 7.0 15.0 Fortune Trust 26.0 1.3 23.5 Galaxy Securities 24.0 -4.0 15.0 Guosen Securities 22.0 -10.0 0.0 Guotai Junan Securities 26.0 6.6 29.2 Hang Seng Bank 32.4 -8.0 -2.0 HSBC 21.0 -5.0 18.0 Industrial Bank 22.5 3.0 28.0 Industrial Securities 25.1 0.0 20.0 ING 26.8 8.0 30.0 JP Morgan 22.8 2.1 26.3 Orient Securities 19.9 0.5 28.0 Qilu Securities ~ -4.5 3.0 Sealand Securities ~ -5.0 5.0 Shanghai Securities 20.0 -4.3 20.6 Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 24.0 1.4 22.4 SJS Markets 23.5 5.7 30.8 Standard Chartered 23.5 1.1 24.0 State Information Centre ~ -13.0 -3.0 UBS 30.6 -2.0 10.0 --------------------------------------------------------- MEDIAN 23.8 0.9 20.0 Previous month 24.0 -13.8 -6.4 Year earlier 40.1 -2.2 -17.9

~Not available (Reporting by Beijing Economics Team; Editing by Jason Subler)

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