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Politics worry E. Africa CEOs more than world slump

Published 04/09/2009, 06:45 AM
Updated 04/09/2009, 06:48 AM

* More CEOs cite politics than global crisis as worry

* More than half those surveyed expect growth in '09

By Andrew Cawthorne

NAIROBI, April 9 (Reuters) - East African corporate bosses are more concerned about the impact of political instability on business prospects than the global economic downturn, according to a survey published on Thursday.

They are also the most optimistic chief executives in the world about growth possibilities this year, with more than half predicting increased revenue in 2009.

In the poll of 187 CEOs and business heads from Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda, 30 percent cited politics as a long-term worry, versus 8 percent mentioning the world slump.

"The political situation at the moment is even more precarious than at the end of last year," Charles Muchene, who heads the Kenya office of PricewaterhouseCoopers which carried out the survey at the end of 2008, told Reuters.

"It is a very real risk to the business environment."

Muchene was referring mainly to squabbling within the coalition government that rules Kenya, whose $35 billion economy is double the size of the region's next biggest, Tanzania.

Formed a year ago to end a post-election crisis that dented Kenya's economy and also hurt trade and growth across the region, the government of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga is under unprecedented strain.

Public criticism of corruption and poor performance has reached a crescendo, a meeting to reconcile Kibaki's and Odinga's camps collapsed in acrimony at the weekend, the justice minister has quit in disgust, political reforms have stalled, and rhetoric between both sides has become ugly in recent days.

Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda are perceived as more stable governments at the moment, although there are concerns about corruption, red tape and authoritarianism in those countries.

CONFIDENCE HIGH

PricewaterhouseCooper's survey found 51 percent of east African corporate chiefs were confident of revenue growth in the year ahead, and 58 percent over the next three years.

That was way ahead of other regions, with confidence levels in North America at 21 percent and 34 percent respectively, Western Europe 15 and 26, Latin America 21 and 29, and Asia-Pacific 21 and 41 for example, the consultancy firm said.

Economists say that while Africa has been buffeted by falling remittances, aid, foreign investment and commodity prices, the continent is at least less badly hit than elsewhere due to good fundamentals and strong internal growth factors.

They warn, however, that a widespread view at the start of the global crisis in 2008 that Africa would be "sheltered" from the crisis has been proven wide of the mark.

"The Kenyan business leaders have had reason to be confident up to the end of last year, even though it was inevitable that we would eventually be affected negatively by the economic downturn," Muchene said.

"Now the effects are indisputably here and we have a small window in which to act to protect our businesses against the worst of the economic uncertainty."

The survey found 34 percent of CEOs viewing maximising returns from existing markets as their main opportunity for growth, while 32 percent said new geographic markets were the the best chance to grow their business.

"An increasingly lucrative domestic rural market is up for grabs too," Muchene said, speaking about Kenya where banks and mobile firms have made big strides in the last few years among poorer sections of society in the provinces.

"Companies that can undertake well-planned expansion will be able to seize opportunities while others are in hiding."

Only 11 percent of CEOs surveyed expected to cut staff.

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