✂ Fed’s first rate cut since 2020: Use our free Stock Screener to find new opportunities fastExplore for FREE

OPEC sees oil demand falling more, risks to price

Published 05/13/2009, 06:35 AM
Updated 05/13/2009, 06:40 AM
TTEF
-

LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) - World oil demand is still shrinking as the global economy contracts, OPEC said on Wednesday, adding a recent rise in oil prices reflects sentiment rather than fundamentals, which are far from balanced.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its Monthly Oil Market Report demand would drop by 1.57 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to average 84.03 million bpd. Its previous forecast was for demand to fall by 1.37 million bpd.

Despite the latest revision, OPEC still expects higher global oil demand than the International Energy Agency, adviser to industrialised countries, which last month forecast consumption this year at 83.4 million bpd.

Demand is falling fast in the developed nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), but the global downturn has also curbed previously rapid demand growth in developing countries such as China and India.

World oil demand contracted year-on-year by a record 2.4 million bpd in the first quarter of this year with about 95 percent of the total decline attributed to the OECD, OPEC said.

Oil prices hit a record high of almost $150 a barrel in July last year, supported by expectations of strong demand from the developing world, but then tumbled to lows beneath $35 in December as the global downturn took hold.

Oil prices have recovered since December and hit a six-month high above $60 per barrel on Tuesday on early signs the economic slowdown might not be as severe as previously thought.

But the OPEC report cautioned that the improvement in market sentiment did not necessarily reflect the realities of demand and supply.

"Prices have remained above $50 per barrel due more to market sentiment than fundamentals. Considerable risks remain as oil market fundamentals are far from balanced due to the persistent contraction in demand and growing supply overhang."

OPEC has promised to cut 4.2 million bpd, equal to about 5 percent of daily world demand, from its output levels since September to try to support prices.

The producer group, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, held its output quotas steady when it last met in March, but will meet again on May 28 to reassess the market.

OPEC complied with 77 percent of its pledged supply cuts in April, versus 82 percent in March, according to Reuters calculations based on OPEC data.

The group said its production, excluding Iraq, was at 25.81 million bpd in April, up from 25.59 million bpd in March. (Reporting by Christopher Johnson; editing by James Jukwey)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.