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OPEC's next move hangs on success of G20 summit

Published 03/17/2009, 10:39 AM
Updated 03/17/2009, 10:40 AM
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* Next OPEC decision depends on G20 success

* U.S. Energy Secretary asked OPEC to avoid price surge

* OPEC compliance should reach 95 percent

(Adds dropped word paragraph 8)

By Barbara Lewis and Simon Webb

VIENNA, March 17 (Reuters) - A G20 summit to tackle global economic crisis was OPEC's prime reason for resisting another output cut and its next move will depend on whether the world leaders succeed, Algeria's energy minister said on Tuesday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Sunday agreed to do no more than improve compliance with existing supply curbs even though oil inventories are high and the oil price is lower than it would like.

Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu called oil ministers before the meeting and asked them to avoid driving up the price and destabilising the economy.

But the main consideration was the Group of 20 summit of developed and emerging economies on April 2 in London.

"Should we make a cut before the G20 .. and give an excuse for them to complain ... or just remain with what we have decided and make sure the members comply fully and call another meeting as soon as possible?" Khelil said, resuming the debate for reporters.

OPEC was now looking to the G20 to shore up the economy, which would also have the effect of shoring up oil demand.

"All the decisions we made are based on the assumption that the G20 will come up with a good package... I think they will because they don't have a choice. The only choice is to come up with a good package," Khelil said.

OPEC, which called a further meeting on May 28, has already agreed since last September to take away 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) and has met around 80 percent of that target.

Compliance would go up to around 95 percent, Khelil said, and he predicted oil would reach around $60 by the end of the year, closer to the level OPEC favours of around $75 a barrel.

The oil price traded at close to $47 a barrel on Tuesday , drawing support from stronger equity markets, as well as from OPEC's cuts so far, which have removed some excess supply.

TARGET STILL HIGH, BUT WHEN?

OPEC ministers have repeatedly said a price of around $75 was needed to sustain investment in production, but they have not set a time-frame.

The group has reason to be far more relaxed now than at its last meeting in December when prices were heading towards a low of $32.40, but some of the 12 members of OPEC are in more of a hurry than others to push the price higher.

Algeria can live for two-to-three years with prices as low as $37 -- the price assumption in its budget -- and its energy projects are viable at between $40 and $50 a barrel, Khelil said.

The country has about $140 billion in cash reserves, he said further. It has paid off its debts with the help of proceeds from expensive oil, which last year rose to a record of nearly $150 a barrel, but it does have new projects to finance.

For Khelil, the international community's side of the bargain would be for it to agree an oil price that was fair to all parties.

It has yet to do that, even though, he argued, it was not just in the interests of oil producing nations and energy efficiency and alternative fuels depend on expensive oil.

"It is not selfish ... It's a good price, not only for developing oil," said Khelil of oil at around $75.

"Unless we have that kind of price, we will be using very inefficient cars and consequently we will be affecting the environment more." (Writing by Barbara Lewis; editing by William Hardy)

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