* Dollar funding costs in China rise further above LIBOR
* Thai baht forwards, IRS drop as investors rush to fund
By Vidya Ranganathan
SINGAPORE, Dec 3 (Reuters) - A gradual climb in dollar funding costs in China and a steady drop in Thai baht onshore forwards seemed to suggest domestic investors in these markets are preparing for an inevitable year-end dollar funding squeeze.
In China, onshore dollar lending rates have gradually crept up. Six-month rates are now quoted at 1.689 percent, which is 120 basis points above corresponding dollar LIBOR.
China's central bank was suspected of doing swaps with some local banks to lend them dollars. Although most traders declined to comment on the tenor and pricing of these secretive and rare swap transactions, they said the latest set of swaps amounted to tens of billions of dollars.
While traders concurred the swaps were done primarily to ease the dollar crunch, some suspected the authorities also wanted to prevent undue weakening of the yuan as dollars got scarcer at the year end.
"We heard the central bank has selected to do swaps with a few selected commercial banks," said one trader at a bank in Shanghai. "The amount is highly secretive but my personal guess is it won't be too small... perhaps at least several tens of billions in dollars".
Other traders said the rising dollar funding costs raised the odds that China's central bank will do more swaps with banks, both before the year end and early in 2010.
In Thailand and to some extent in India, the drop in onshore forwards in the currency market revealed a similar rush by investors to tie up their dollar funding before the end of the year.
Forwards fall as onshore funds and investors receive swaps, as they convert local currencies into dollars or other foreign currencies, in order to invest abroad.
While there is always a pipeline of swaps being rolled over, traders suspected the pressure on forwards had risen as investors protectively tried to pre-empt the year-end rush by rolling their positions in advance.
"There are definitely some signs of dollar funding pressures, but I am not sure how strong and it happens around year end," said an analyst in Singapore
"I dont think there is much of a systemic worry about dollar shortage. There is some concern obviously because of the pick up in central bank intervention, but then again, they are also doing FX swaps to lend those dollars back out.".
Thai 3-month forwards are now trading at minus 3 points, implying a dollar discount, having fallen from a 6.5 pointsp premium 10 days ago.
The interbank fixing rate which is derived from forwards has also plunged, with 6-month baht rates at 0.58 percent compared with 1.3 a month ago.
Baht interest rate swaps have also tumbled, with the one-year swap having fallen 30 bps in less than a week.
Both in India and Thailand, traders said the rising currencies were compressing forward points by forcing greater hedging by exporters. In addition, equity outflows from the Thai equity market seemed to have exacerbated the dollar shortage.
The Bank of Thailand has been providing dollar funds through swaps, just like China's central bank. It has been intervening to buy dollars and cap the baht, but has simultaneously done sell/buy dollar/baht swaps to increase its forward book and release dollars back into the market.
"Once we move past the year-end and the hoarding of dollar liquidity dissipates, we expect the premium on FX forwards to normalise and correct higher," Standard Chartered Bank's Danny Suwanapruti said in a note to clients.
"Moreover, we expect the Bnak of Thailand to gradually provide more dollar liquidity back into the market again." (Editing by Jan Dahinten) ((vidya.ranganathan@thomsonreuters.com; +65-68703090; Reuters Messaging: vidya.ranganathan.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))