Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

MONEY MARKETS-Dollar swaps rise, Malaysia gets hawkish

Published 02/24/2010, 02:02 AM
Updated 02/24/2010, 02:08 AM

* Treasury yields up on US plan to issue more bills

* Upward pressure on Fed funds rates seen limited

* Malaysian swaps rise further, prepare for rate rise

By Vidya Ranganathan

SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Short-term U.S. rates rose in Asia on Wednesday, extending the previous day's reaction to news that the U.S. government is resuming a financing program to help the Federal Reserve drain money from the banking system.

Fed funds futures <0#FF:> also edged lower even though market participants reckoned the renewal of the Treasury Supplementary Financing Program would not push money market rates higher [ID:nN23111208].

Asian local markets were relatively quieter, but that view on U.S. rates led to a further drop in Korean interest rate swaps as some of the yields continued correcting after a spike last week when the Fed raised its discount rate.

Malaysia remained an exception to that trend, with swaps there grinding even higher ahead of a central bank policy meeting next week.

With the central bank governor having spoken several times this year about the need for policy rates to be normalised, analysts have brought forward their expectations for the policy rate -- now at a record low of 2 percent -- to be raised much earlier in the year.

The one-year ringgit interest rate swap for instance has risen 16 bps in two weeks and 34 bps in the past month to 2.64 percent , which is 40 bps above the 3-month interbank rate to which the swaps are pegged.

Yet, even though Bank Negara Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz has said a normalisation in rates did not construe policy tightening, few expect a rate rise next week and some analysts found the run up in yields excessive.

"After climbing by nearly 30 bps in the past month, there is significant downside risk for front end rates going into this meeting - hence we would suggest taking some profits on outright paid positions and avoid adding further to flatteners for the time being," RBS strategist Woon Khien Chia said in a note.

U.S. SWAPS, FUTURES

In dollar funding markets, the eurodollar futures and fed funds futures <0#FF:> were a shade lower, and swaps a bit higher. The 2-year swap rate was one basis point higher at 1.1 percent, but after it had fallen 10 bps since last week.

The U.S. Treasury Department's revival of its $200 billion financing program will be through eight auctions of $25 billion 56-day bills, beginning on Wednesday.

Market participants speculated that the Treasury, by putting $200 billion of cash at the Fed, was facilitating completion of the Fed's program to purchase agency mortgage backed securities (MBS). The Fed's holdings of MBS totaled $1.026 trillion in the week ended Feb. 17 and it plans to have bought $1.25 trillion by the end of March.

Also, the planned sale of bills could bring down excess reserves banks have parked at the Fed, which at last count had crosses $1.2 trillion.

"If the Fed already has sufficient funds to complete their MBS program, what it gives them is some extra funding in case they decide they want to extend their buying," said Sean Keane, a director of Triple T Consulting and formerly a money markets trader at Credit Suisse.

"And the market is getting quite focused on what will happen to the long term mortgage rates once the Fed stops buying," Keane said.

Keane also felt that the Fed funds rate, stuck around the middle of the Fed's 0 to 0.25 percent policy range for nearly six months, would move up by a basis point or two, if at all.

Analysts at Barclays Capital said the re-introduction of the supplementary bills program was to expand the Fed's arsenal of tools to drain cash, so that less reverse repos and term deposits are required when the Fed begins policy tightening in earnest.

It did not seem intended to either drain a vast amount of reserves or to push front end rates higher, they wrote.

"Based on an estimated $800-1,000 billion in reserve draining, both reverse repos and term deposits programs will need to be large, potentially introducing significant distortions in short rate markets," Barclays said in the note. (editing by Kazunori Takada)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.