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MONEY MARKETS-Dlr rates at new low, exit jitters weigh on euros

Published 11/23/2009, 07:45 AM
Updated 11/23/2009, 07:51 AM

* Liquidity, dovish talk push dlr rates to new lows * Exit policy uncertainty weighs on euro rates

By Kirsten Donovan

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Dollar and euro interbank lending rates remained at or near lows on Monday as ample liquidity remained in the system but market attention is increasingly turning to how central banks will withdraw this cash.

The European Central Bank is expected to give some details of its planned exit strategy at its policy meeting next week, as well as saying whether it will charge more than 1 percent at December's likely final tender of 1-year funds.

But ahead of that, the ECB on Friday said it would tighten its rating requirements for banks using asset-backed securities (ABS) as security in its lending operations.

Six- and 12-month Eonia rates edged up on the announcement, which also prompted a brief government bond sell-off.

"The collateral shift to ABS ratings ... is an example of relatively minor news prompting an extreme reaction but it highlights the sensitivity of the markets to any hint that the exit strategy from stimulus policies has begun," said Nomura rate strategist Charles Diebel.

The market is not expecting a spread to be added at the 1-year tender and sees a take-up of around 100-150 billion euros, although some estimates run to double that. Even a take-up of 100 billion euros would keep excess liquidity in the euro zone financial system at around its current 60 billion euro level through the first half of 2010.

ECB officials, including President Jean-Claude Trichet, have warned banks against becoming too reliant on central bank funds, because last year's extraordinary measures will be wound down.

Analysts said that the central bank talk may instead boost demand for funds making it harder for the central bank to control monetary policy next year.

"Probably, the ECB intends to send clear signals to banks ahead of the 12-month tender," said BNP Paribas rate strategist Alessandro Tentori.

"The game is a risky one as they may be sending the wrong signals, thus pushing banks into big demand and thus further removing the ECB's flexibility to operate in 2010."

In the euro zone, three-month euro Libor rates nudged up to 0.67563 percent.

FED MINUTES EYED FOR CLUES

In the United States, the prospect of ongoing ultra-low policy rates, combined with a move into less risky assets as year-end approaches, has squashed market rates, sending yields on short-dated Treasury bills below zero at the end of last week.

"The dovish comments from the Fed over the last week have put slight downward pressure on dollar Libor and there is also huge demand for cash-like instruments with year-end approaching," said Nick Stamenkovic, a rate strategist at RIA Capital Markets.

Three-month dollar Libor hit a new low of 0.26188 percent.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are released on Tuesday and will give more clues to their thinking.

At the meeting, which concluded on Nov. 4, Federal Reserve policymakers reiterated a pledge to keep interest rates extraordinarily low for an extended period. And senior Fed official James Bullard said on Sunday the central bank should keep alive its mortgage-related asset purchase programme beyond a planned end-date to give policy-makers more flexibility. (Reporting by Kirsten Donovan; Editing by Ruth Pitchford) ((kirsten.donovan.reuters.com@reuters.net, +44 20 7542 8675))

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