* Australian swaps rise, some expect rate hike in Oct
* Indian OIS curve shifts upwards as RBI warns
By Umesh Desai
HONG KONG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Interest rate swaps in Australia rose on Friday amid growing speculation among investors that its central bank may raise interest rates as early as October after a recent batch of strong economic data.
Indian swaps also rose after the central bank highlighted the risk of upward pressures on prices from prolonged expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, with poor rainfall an additional threat on inflation.
Dollar lending rates continued their downward journey as interbank cost of borrowing fell in Europe and the United States amid signs the economic recovery was not triggering any increase in loan pressure on lenders.
In Singapore, the cost of 3 month dollars edged down to another record low of 0.37143 percent from the previous 0.37786 percent.
The rates are less than a tenth of the levels that prevailed last October after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered a scramble for cash as banks became risk averse.
Australian bill and bond futures tumbled and rate swaps rose with some investors even expecting a rate increase in October with December interbank futures suggesting rates could hit 3.5 percent by year-end.
Aussie 1-year swaps quoted 2.5 bps higher at 4.165 percent and are now at a nine-month high.
"The data from Australia has been pretty strong, suggesting the economy has a fair bit of momentum," said John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank. "Interest rate markets are now bringing forward the prospects of a rate hike to as early as October and that is helping the Aussie."
Australia on Thursday reported a surprise jump in business investment last quarter, highlighting upward risks to growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets early next week to decide on rates, and while markets expect it to keep rates unchanged at a record low of 3 percent, investors are moving to factor in a good chance of a rate move as early as October.
"There is a risk that the RBA shifts to a modest tightening bias at next Tuesday's September board meeting which could well be justified by a firm Q2 GDP print," said RBC Capital Markets in a note.
"We will wait for next week's key developments and data but we are likely to pull forward some of our 150bp of hikes from H1 2010 into Q4 2009."
In India, the overnight indexed swaps (OIS) curve shifted upwards, after The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its annual report for 2008/09, said poor monsoons posed a greater risk for inflation than to growth and that timing an exit from its accommodative policies was a challenge.
The one year OIS at a mid-point of 4.48 percent, jumped about 5 bps on Friday.
But analysts said there was unlikely to be a increase in the official interest rates as credit offtake remained poor and any rise would undo the recent gains from an accomodative policy.
"If the headline inflation goes up because of commodity prices or base effect going out, it will not be a sufficient driver for the RBI to raise rates as the growth management will be an equal priority," Mahendra Jajoo, head of fixed income and structured products, Tata AMC which oversees about 200 billion rupees.
But he added the RBI's exit policy may start with liquidity moderation and end with rate hike. (Editing by Jan Dahinten)