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MONEY MARKETS-Australia stokes hopes of rate pause in Feb

Published 12/01/2009, 02:57 AM
Updated 12/01/2009, 03:03 AM

* Aussie swap rates fall, futures bounce after rate hike * Australia prices in chance of a pause at next meet

* Euroyen futures off highs on BOJ disappointment

By Umesh Desai

HONG KONG, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Australian swap rates fell and bond futures rallied after the central bank raised rates as expected and said it made "material adjustments" to the stance of monetary policy, raising hopes it will pause at its next meeting.

Swaps fell across the curve with the one year swap declining 7 basis points to 4.45 percent and the 5-year down 11.5 bps to 5.59 percent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted the key cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent, raising the benchmark for the third straight month and calling its three hikes a "material adjustments to the stance of monetary policy".

"The market has looked at the term 'material' and has taken away rate hikes in the future that they had priced, so there is sharp flattening," said NAB Capital's head of research Peter Jolly.

The spread between the five year and one year swap fell 2.5 bps to 113 bps. It has fallen 30 basis points in the past month.

"Markets which had priced in rates of 5.5-6 percent in a year or two's time has revised that down," he said, but added that he still expects the central bank of keep raising rates at its next meeting on Feb.3.

December contracts for 3-year bond futures rose 0.08 points to 95.38 and the ten-year contract was up 0.04 points to 94.80.

However, interbank futures continued to price in a string of rises toward 4.5 percent by June, with only the pace of the tightening in doubt.

February interbank futures were implying a one-month rate of 3.87 percent, or about a 50:50 chance of an increase. The 3-month overnight indexed swaps was at 3.7775/3.8175 percent and implied a 60 percent possibilty of a rates hike in February.

"Rates are still low," said Paul Brennan, head of market economics, Citigroup.

"The way for the medium term is that as spare capacity gets eaten up, then rates will have to be restrictive. I think normal is 5 to 5.5 percent," he said but added the central bank will move to "restrictive levels" in 2011.

NO QE

In Japan, the euroyen futures lead contract trimmed gains and came off four-year highs as the Bank of Japan announced monetary easing that fell short of market expectations.

Lead three-month euroyen futures, which jumped to a four-year high of 99.710 before the BOJ announcement, came off the initial peaks to trade at 99.64.

Earlier, the Bank of Japan called an emergency policy meeting amid growing pressure from the finance minister on the central bank to support the economy, with the lawmaker also saying he was open to a return to quantitative easing.

"The BOJ did not step into so-called quantitative easing," said Chotaro Morita, head of Japan fixed income strategy research at Barclays Capital. He added that the there was selling in government bonds on disappointment that there was nothing about long-term JGB buying or quantitative easing.

"It may have the effect of bringing down term money market rates a bit more."

Before the meeting, 3-month interbank yen rates extended their decline falling to a new trough of 0.50385 percent, down 2 bps in the past month.

But stil these rates continue to be above the yen LIBOR rates, since the TIBOR forms the basis for pricing domestic loans.

In August two- and three-month dollar Libor dipped below their Japanese equivalents for the first time in 16 years, according to Reuters charts, when Japan was still in the grips of a recession which started in 1990.

That gap has continued to widen making it attractive for investors to borrow at dollar LIBOR rates and deploy them in yen assets, putting upward pressure on the Japanese currency. (Editing by Jan Dahinten) ((umesh.desai@thomsonreuters.com; +852 2843 6935; Reuters Messaging: umesh.desai.reuters.com@reuters.net; )) (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to newsfeedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)

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