* Aussie bill futures down again after job ads data
* Analysts think Aussie markets might be disappointed
* Dollar funding at fresh lows, nearing resistance
By Vidya Ranganathan
SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Aussie bill futures fell and market estimates of policy tightening in the near future jumped on Monday after a huge improvement in job advertisements data spurred hopes of better employment numbers later this week.
In U.S. dollar funding markets, rates hit fresh record lows but were near levels where analysts suspected they would meet resistance owing to the Federal Reserve's interest payment on reserves.
Australian job advertisements in newspapers and on the internet rose for the first time in 16 months in August. Coming against the backdrop of a rally in the Aussie dollar and a broader pick up in risk-seeking, it caused the rates market to get even more aggressive about future policy tightening.
In a market that has seen sentiment swing wildly in the past few weeks, overnight indexed swaps rose and a Credit Suisse measure showed investors priced in 192 bps of rate rises within the next 12 months, 10 bps more than on Friday.
Bill futures fell as much as 8 to 10 bps, with the December 2009 3-month bill contract pricing in a yield of 4.02 percent, 102 bps more than the policy rate.
"Maybe the market was caught out looking for this strong number and perhaps expectations have been raised for Thursday's number, which is not necessarily correct because these surveys are more leading than that," said Annette Beacher, a senior strategist at TD Securities.
The job ads data was probably more reflective of how the labour market would be in early 2010, rather than now, she said. The employment data is due on Thursday, with market expectations for a decline of 12,500 jobs.
"I presume a lot of people will be judgmentally adjusting that number upwards, even though that is strictly not correct. So it could be setting up the market for disappointment...it is hard to say," Beacher said.
Between Monday and the employment data on Thursday, the Aussie market also has to contend with data on consumer sentiment, housing finance and retail sales, all of which could sway the twitchy market.
Last week, the hawkishness was toned down by a Reserve Bank of Australia statement that played down the chances of an early withdrawal from an easy monetary stance.
According to the Credit Suisse gauge, expectations of a rate rise in November have gone up to 45 percent from 37 on Friday.
DOLLAR FUNDING
In the dollar markets meanwhile, bonds fell in line with the broader rally in stock markets and rally in high-yielding assets after Friday's U.S. August non-farm payrolls data, which a majority of investors seemed to have interpreted as bullish despite unemployment being at a 26-year high.
Dollar funding spreads tightened, Eurodollar futures were almost unchanged and dollar interbank rates fell to new record lows.
The 3-month funding in Singapore dropped to 0.31929 percent, a record low and not far from LIBOR for that tenor at 0.31438 percent, both supported by the swathes of cash the Fed has pumped into the banking system.
The spread between LIBOR and 3-month OIS was 15 bps, levels last seen two years ago and close to the pre-crisis long-run ranges around 10 bps.
Analysts at Barclays reckoned LIBOR would not fall below 0.25 percent, the rate of interest the Fed pays on reserves placed with the central bank.
"To the extent that banks could borrow in the unsecured dollar deposit market at rates below 25 bps, there is a simple arbitrage in raising term money to deposit at the Federal Reserve overnight," Barclays said in the note.
The FRA-OIS pricing, the difference between future expectations of LIBOR and policy rates, also suggested market expectations for the LIBOR-OIS to widen to about 21 bps by December as LIBOR gradually inches up.
"We feel spread widening is clearly reasonable, given the uncertainties surrounding the timing, scale, and tools of the Federal Reserve's exit strategy," Barclays analysts wrote.
"Moreover, even if the liquidity programs have long since ceased being used by early 2010, their official termination will take away the market's security blanket." (Editing by Kim Coghill)