* Aussie curve steepens, cash moves into short end
* Stocks rise, but investors worry about extending risk
* Bernanke remarks, caution depresses dollar spreads
By Vidya Ranganathan
SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - The short end of Australia's yield curve steepened further on Wednesday after inflation data reinforced central bank signals that policy rates will stay down for a while but the odds for further rate cuts are rather low.
Australian inflation was at its slowest in a decade in the second quarter, yet Wednesday's data also showed pockets of stubborn price trends in retail discretionary spending and transport.
The data gave traders a reason to position for an even steeper curve a day after the central bank's last meeting minutes mentioned signs of improvements in the domestic economy and stated that the effects of stimulus measures would be coming through for some time.
One-month bank bill rates dipped to 3.09 percent, a little more than one basis point down from Tuesday. The move, though small, takes that yield down to early-April lows and extends a rally that has seen bill yields down 10-12 bps up to the six-month tenor.
Yields in the one- to two-year part of the curve have drifted higher. Two-year interest rate swaps have risen 44 bps over the past 12 days to 4.22 percent.
"A lot has changed in the past month with regard to interest rate expectations. We've gone from the possibility of having further rate cuts being priced out to rate hikes being priced in," said Jarrod Kerr, rates strategist at Commonwealth Bank.
"We have had rate expectations reasonably anchored over the next six months and it's really steepened out over the next year. The 1-year-2-year is really steep."
Kerr believes yield curves will remain steep over the second half of the year and there was a chance the Reserve Bank of Australia may signal a neutral policy stance as early as next month.
DIFFICULT PRICING
The steepening has been particularly magnified in the
2-year sector of the forward swaps curve. Aussie dollar
two-year swaps starting a year from now
"I would be receiving that part of the curve. There is too much priced in," said Kerr.
Deutsche Bank said in a report the Aussie market was having a hard time pricing the RBA being on hold. "Thus if the Bank has stopped easing attention immediately swings to the timing of the first rate hike and the speed at which the cash rate will rise," they said.
The RBA cash rate is at 3 percent. The one-month interbank or bank bill swap rate is just 10 bps higher and the 3-month rate at 3.13 percent, implying the short end of the curve is trading at extremely tight spreads.
The moves in the past month have also coincided with reserves banks place with the RBA dwindling sharply to levels last seen in September 2008, just after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Balances with RBA have been as high as A$10 billion and are now below $2 billion on average.
The selloff at the longer end of the Aussie curve has also come at the same time that U.S. short term rates have rallied, that rally supported by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's assurance this week that U.S. policy rates will stay low for an extended period of time.
Spreads between 10-year Aussie bonds and U.S. Treasuries widened to 218 bps, getting close to the June high near 225 bps.
Meanwhile, dollar funding rates in Asia edged lower, creeping close to last week's record lows. Three-month Singapore interbank dollars were quoted at 0.50429 percent, inching closer to last week's record low of 0.50286.
The spread between U.S. 2-year swaps and Treasuries narrowed to 42.75 bps, coming off one-month highs above 47 seen at the start of this week.
Bernanke in his semi-annual congressional testimony on Tuesday said the outlook for the U.S. economy was improving but that policy needed to be accomodative for a while to prevent unemployment from jeopardising the recovery.
Earlier, in a newspaper column, Bernanke outlined some of the "exit strategy" options the Fed has, such as offering term deposits to banks, selling its holdings of long-term securities or paying interest on reserves banks hold with it. (Editing by Jan Dahinten)