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MONEY MARKETS-Asia adjusts with a lag to spike in US yields

Published 06/09/2009, 02:26 AM
Updated 06/09/2009, 02:57 AM

* Swap rates rise, Asian forwards also react

* Hong Kong, Singapore bond markets fall the most

By Vidya Ranganathan

SINGAPORE, June 9 (Reuters) - Swap and bond markets in Singapore, Thailand and elsewhere in Asia turned bearish on Tuesday as markets took time realising that the spike in U.S. short term yields was not merely a passing reaction to data.

After the sharp sell off on Friday and Monday triggered by the improvement in the jobs situation, and therefore expectation the Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner rather than later, U.S. short term yields seemed to have stabilised.

Yet, investors who had bet that the sharp moves in eurodollar futures and Treasury yields was overdone and would eventually lead to some retracement were disappointed.

Two-year Treasuries yielded 1.38 percent, 42 basis points above levels late last week.

The June 2010 eurodollar future was at 97.865, implying 3-month LIBOR at 2.135 percent, which is nearly 150 bps above the prevailing 3-month interbank rate.

"We still do not see the Fed raising rates anytime soon, but the technicals currently driving the market have overpowered the likely economic outcome for the time being," RBC Capital Markets said in a note. Asia's reaction had been somewhat muted on Monday. The impact on currencies, bonds and swaps was far more marked on Tuesday.

Thai 2-year yields rose 7 bps to 1.7 percent on Monday but were at 2.06 percent on Tuesday.

Korean won non-deliverable forwards fell on Monday but moved higher to price in a weaker won on Tuesday. Likewise, Indian rupee NDFs were stable on Monday but moved higher on Tuesday.

"People didn't believe that Asian rates can move as much as dollar rates, that basically Asian rates shouldn't be a 1-for-1 move as there isn't a burgeoning deficit issue here of the magnitude of what the U.S. has," said a trader in Singapore.

"However, Asian rates are starting to surprisingly catch up with U.S. dollar rates, so today we are seeing some paying interest on the forwards."

Rates in other Asian markets continued to play catch up with the bearish U.S. market, albeit at a pace far smaller than that in dollar markets.

DBS Bank strategist Jens Lauschke reckoned there was enough bearish momentum and worries over new supply of bonds to keep U.S. yields elevated for a while.

The spread of 2-year U.S. interest rate swaps over the 3-month LIBOR which is the floating rate for the swaps, at around 130 bps, was wider than levels in late 2003 and early 2004 just before the last monetary tightening cycle in the United States, Lauschke said.

"But like 2-year Treasury yields, the 2-year swap rate can, for a while, trade 150-200 bps above the 3-month LIBOR in the extreme," he said in a note.

One-year Korean treasury bond yields climed to 2.61 percent from Friday's 2.45, while the yield curve steepened between the one-year and 3-month tenors to 57 bps from 49 late last week.

Singapore one-year interest rate swaps rose to 1.56 percent from Friday's 1.3 percent. Thai 2-year swaps have risen 48 bps to 2.6 percent over the past two sessions.

In Hong Kong, the market most entwined with that in the United States because of the currency peg, one-year interest rate swaps have gone up to 0.9 percent from 0.63 on Friday. The fixing rate on 2-year Hong Kong exchange bills has meanwhile risen to 0.98 percent from 0.54 late last week. (Editing by Jan Dahinten)

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