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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: December 3 - 7

Published 12/02/2012, 10:15 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended Friday’s session at a two-day high against the Canadian dollar, as market players continued to monitor negotiations among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the looming “fiscal cliff” crisis.

USD/CAD hit 0.9951 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9940 by close of trade, 0.17% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9911, the low from November 29 and resistance at 0.9959, the high from November 28.

Markets participants continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the four weeks left before the January 1 deadline.

House Speaker John Boehner said Friday that there has been little progress in talks but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he thought Congress could finalize a deal this year.

The greenback shrugged off official data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending fell 0.2% in October, as much of the decline was attributed to disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy.

Also Friday, Statistics Canada said gross domestic product was flat in September, disappointing expectations for growth of 0.1%.

Year-over-year, Canada’s economy expanded by 1% in September, missing expectations for growth of 1.2%.

Elsewhere, in the euro zone, Germany’s parliament approved a new aid package for Greece on Friday by a large majority.

However, concerns over the economic outlook for the region continued to weigh after official data on Friday showed that German retail sales fell sharply in October, while a separate report showed that the unemployment rate in the euro zone hit a record high 11.7% in October.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s highly anticipated data on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, as investors attempt to gauge the strength of the country’s economic recovery.

A rate decision by the Bank of Canada will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 3

The Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on manufacturing growth in the U.S.

Tuesday, December 4

The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement is to be accompanied by the central bank’s rate statement.

Wednesday, December 5

The U.S. is to release a report on ADP nonfarm payrolls, as well as official data on factory orders and crude oil stockpiles. In addition, the ISM is to produce a report on service sector activity.

Thursday, December 6

The U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Meanwhile, Canada is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity. Canada is also to publish its Ivey PMI.

Friday, December 7

Canada is to release official data on employment change and the unemployment rate, leading indicators of economic health.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to round up the week with official data on nonfarm payrolls, the foremost gauge of job creation, as well as data on the overall unemployment rate. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release preliminary data on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

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