* Libyan stock market could get IPO boost
* Egyptian exporters' stocks seen rising on lower pound
* Q3 earnings still driving markets
By Patrick Werr
CAIRO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Egypt's pound is expected to face more selling pressure next week as foreign investors dump the currency ahead of upcoming elections, but the central bank may intervene to stop any sharp declines from fuelling inflation.
In the Gulf, where most currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar, stock markets had their best month in over a year in September and gains could extend through October if the U.S. Federal Reserve announces a new round of economic stimulus.
Egypt's pound had been attracting foreign investors for the past year; they bought treasury bills at higher yields than those offered in developed markets where economic growth remains sluggish and interest rates are at historic lows. This trend has been reversed after a large sell-off of T-bills weakened the pound to 5.7740 to the dollar on Oct. 26, its lowest level in five years.
"We believe (the pound) will face further temporary downward pressure as the yield on three-month T-bills reverses its trend and some foreign investors continue to exit the T-bill market," J.P. Morgan said in recent research note.
"We believe the central bank will likely accelerate its intervention in the foreign exchange market again especially if (the pound) weakens to 5.79 (against the dollar)".
Some traders said the central bank might be buying dollars and letting the pound weaken to make Egypt's exports more attractive. They also said the bank might be building reserves to cope with any market volatility before parliamentary elections on Nov. 28 and presidential elections in 2011.
No one doubts President Hosni Mubarak's ruling party will dominate both races, but the polls are being watched to see how much space is given to the opposition and, more crucially, whether the 82-year-old president seeks another term next year.
However, with inflation running at 11 percent, the Egyptian government is loath to let the currency fall too much before elections out of concern it could push up the price of imported goods, especially foodstuffs, even faster.
The Egyptian pound is also likely to pick up against the dollar as the fourth quarter progresses because widely-expected quantitative easing measures (QE2) in the United States will accelerate capital flows to higher interest rate emerging markets, CI Capital Research said in a note on Tuesday.
"We believe the recent depreciation will be of a short-term nature -- which should be intensified with the upcoming November elections," it said.
"As QE2 materializes, more capital should flow into the economy which should shift such depreciation pattern."
EGYPTIAN EQUITIES
Analysts said the lower pound could boost the shares of some exporters listed on the Egyptian stock market, though investors will focus more on earnings. Most Egyptian companies report their third quarter results in the first two weeks of November.
"The market will be looking at ... banks' results in the early weeks of November. Expectations are high for bank loan growth," Simon Kitchen, a strategist with EFG-Hermes, said.
"Overall, the Egyptian market will continue to take a lead from global markets, though retail activity and rich valuations for blue-chips will mean that smaller cap names outperform."
The lower pound is seen helping exporters such as sanitary ware maker Lecico, machine carpet maker Oriental Weavers and clothes maker Arafa.
Investors will also keeping a close eye on the fate of Orascom Telecom's Algerian unit Djezzy.
The Algerian government plans to nationalise Djezzy, but says it will not begin talks with Orascom until next year, casting fresh doubt on a $6.6 billion deal for Vimpelcom to buy Orascom assets. Investors will also be watching for any sign of leniency by the Algerian government on its recent claim that Djezzy owes $230 million in back taxes for 2008 and 2009.
GULF MARKETS
In the Gulf, stock markets including Dubai and Abu Dhabi have extended stellar gains from last month into October.
Gulf markets are seen benefitting from widely-expected U.S. Federal Reserve plans to unveil a new round of "quantitative easing", to pump more money into the economy.
Any such move could push the dollar lower, which in turn would raise the price of crude oil exports, which are priced in the greenback and on which most Gulf Arab countries depend.
"Focus continues to be on Fed comments ahead of the Nov. 3 FOMC meeting," said Ajeev Gopinath, associate vice president for asset management at Gulf Baader Capital Markets in Muscat.
Earnings will drive markets for another week, with regional lenders and property-related stocks in the United Arab Emirates yet to announce their quarterly performance.
"Economic recovery is picking up with a stable crude price and fiscal surpluses. (Gulf) equities are well placed among frontier markets, with economic growth better than the developed world and lower than emerging markets," Gopinath said.
"This should drive institutional interest in the region, as we have gained more visibility in core earnings for the corporate sector after recent earnings announcements."
FRONTIER MARKETS
Libya's stock exchange may get a boost due to comments made by its chairman, who said 20 new companies could be listed in 2011, including two mobile telephone operators, al Madar and Libyana. Libya has been gradually opening up its economy, and some foreign analysts say it has the potential to become a regional financial hub, but more reforms as well as a more predictable regulatory environment are needed before that can happen. (With additional reporting by Dinesh Nair in Dubai, Editing by Lin Noueihed)