By John Parry
NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Greece will not default on its debt because other European countries would back it to avert broader repercussions in the euro zone, one of the biggest global asset management companies said on Monday.
Amundi, a joint venture created from the tie-up of Credit Agricole and Societe Generale's asset management businesses last year, has been buying Greek debt over the last three to six months, Jacques Keller, investment specialist with Amundi Asset Management in London, told Reuters.
With Greek spreads over German bunds at approximately 350 to 400 basis points, "we believe that this risk is duly remunerated given I would say the backup that the Greek government has," said Keller, who reflects the views of Amundi's global fixed-income team based in London, but who does not make asset allocation decisions.
Amundi manages about 650 billion euros in assets.
Late last week, the Greek/German 10-year government bond yield spread widened to about 338 basis points, its widest since Feb. 9. German government bonds are typically viewed by investors as the most stable euro-zone debt market, against which other countries in the zone are compared.
Keller was speaking to Reuters in an interview in New York on Monday about the sovereign debt concerns centering on Greece and some other heavily indebted European nations, which have been a central focus in global markets in recent weeks. A sell-off in some of these sovereign debt markets has triggered broad selling of riskier assets, including corporate bonds and stocks.
Although the European Union would likely stand behind Greece to head off any default, a full-fledged rescue will not be necessary, he said.
"I am not implying a bailout. Greece has a lot of alternative viable options before there is even talk of a bailout," Keller said.
One alternative would be extending European Central Bank support to the Greek financial system, he said. In any case, Greece's own proposals to take extra fiscal measures to meet its deficit-cutting targets may prove effective.
Because the sovereign debt markets of other heavily indebted countries, especially Spain and Ireland, could come under pressure if Greece were to default, the EU would seek to avert that scenario for fear of ripple effects, he said.
Furthermore, Greece would not solve its problems by leaving the euro zone, Keller said.
"If the Greeks drop out of the euro zone ... they could devalue the currency to either inflate their way out of debt or to make themselves more competitive," he said. "But their financing costs would go up dramatically, so in this respect you basically kill any advantage you have by dropping out," Keller said. For that reason, "we don't think it is going to happen. We don't think it's a viable alternative," he said.
Greek government bond yield spreads over German government bonds should tighten over the next six to 12 months, he said.
If yield spreads tightened that would show investors were demanding less compensation for the risk of holding Greek debt.
Meanwhile, the company expects the euro will remain under pressure against the dollar for the next 12 to 18 months.
Long before Greece's debt problems loomed front and center, Amundi had taken a negative view on the euro and considered it overvalued at between about $1.3600 and $1.3650, levels it rose to in December 2004, Keller said.
On Monday afternoon in New York, the euro traded at $1.3608