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Leading index up first time since June-Conf. Board

Published 01/26/2009, 10:04 AM
Updated 01/26/2009, 10:08 AM

WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - For the first time in six months the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators surprisingly rose in December, gaining 0.3 percent, boosted primarily by money supply.

"As we move into the new year, the big question is whether conditions will worsen further," said the research group's economist Ken Goldstein in a statement on Monday. "The Conference Board's indicators suggest we'll still be in an intense recession through the Spring."

Wall Street analysts had expected the leading index, a gauge of future economic conditions, to fall 0.3 percent after a 0.4 percent unrevised decline in November.

Real money supply, which the Conference Board said has been a "continued and very large positive contribution" to the index, rose 0.99 percent in December, after steep increases of 0.66 percent in November and 0.74 percent in October. The last time the money supply component fell was in August, when it was -.05 percent.

The yield spread also bolstered the index, helping offset declines in building permits, supplier deliveries and employment. The spread rose 0.22 percent in December, after being up 0.31 percent the prior month.

(Reporting by Lisa Lambert, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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