Latam growth to slow in 2011 as stimulus withdrawn

Published 03/26/2011, 11:31 AM
Updated 03/26/2011, 11:32 AM

* Counter-inflationary measures main drag on growth

* Capital flows to remain near record levels

CALGARY, Alberta, March 26 (Reuters) - Latin American economic growth will slow this year to 4.5 percent from 6.1 percent last year as countries raise interest rates and rein in spending to curb inflation, a global banking group predicted on Saturday.

The Institute of International Finance's outlook on the region noted that inflationary pressures and sharp currency appreciation are the main challenges facing policymakers as they consider how quickly to put the brakes on the economy.

"The strong performance of these economies and the search for yield by international investors are combining to challenge the skills of governments and central banks in the region," Rick Waugh, IIF vice chairman and chief executive of Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a statement.

"We believe that most governments and central banks will take the necessary fiscal steps and pursue appropriate exchange rate policies," he said on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank.

Central banks have delayed rate hikes for fear of fueling further currency appreciation, despite inflationary pressures caused by emergency low rates in the United States, rising food prices and robust growth, the report said.

Growth will come in at about 4.6 percent in 2012, it said.

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Graphic on Latin American growth, inflation vs G7 economies: http://r.reuters.com/bex68r

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Investors will continue to flood Latin America with capital over the next two years as they favor high-yielding assets, the group believes. It estimates private inflows of about $215 billion in each of the next two years.

Waugh said new global banking regulations aimed at avoiding future crises by forcing banks to hold higher capital and liquidity levels would be "suffocating" for Canadian and Latin American banks that did not fail during the global crisis.

He urged Latin American authorities to "adapt new global banking regulatory requirements with great care" to ensure they do not stifle growth. (Reporting by Louise Egan; editing by Peter Galloway)

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