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CORRECTED-UPDATE 2-Arcandor drops outlook as visibility fades

Published 02/13/2009, 02:48 AM
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(Corrects debt comparison period in paragraph 7 to end of fiscal year, not end of 2008)

* Arcandor says Q1 adjusted core earnings rise 18 percent

* Says drops outlook due to lack of visibility

* Arcandor shares unchanged in weaker market, Thomas Cook up

(Adds comments from CEO, details and background)

DUESSELDORF, Feb 12 (Reuters) - German tourism and retail group Arcandor became the latest company to get cold feet about its prospects as it dropped its 2008/09 outlook, citing a lack of visibility due to the financial crisis.

French carmaker Renault abandoned its 2009 profit targets in the face of an unprecedented crisis in the auto industry and last week, consumer goods giant Unilever scrapped all its targets.

"Like many other companies in consumer-related areas, we do not consider a results forecast to be prudent due to the lacking visibility of the effects from the economic and financial crisis," Arcandor Chief Executive Thomas Middelhoff said on Thursday.

"Nobody can say what next week or the week after will bring," he said and pointed to Arcandor's sites located near large automotive suppliers that are particularly hard hit.

Middelhoff will hand over the reins on March 1 to Karl-Gerhard Eick, who is currently chief financial officer at Deutsche Telekom.

"We saved the company, but there is still a lot to do. This, of course, annoys me, because I would have liked to have handed over the company in perfect condition," Middelhoff said.

Arcandor made a loss of about 58 million euros ($74.94 million) in the first quarter and the group's net debt rose to 1.4 billion euros from 802 million euros at the end of its fiscal year on Sept. 30.

This was mainly due to further restructuring costs at Arcandor's travel arm Thomas Cook, Europe's second largest travel company after TUI Travel, which makes up more than 90 percent of Arcandor's adjusted core profit.

Thomas Cook reported a smaller operating loss for the first quarter, which is one of its seasonally weakest, and said it was confident of meeting full-year expectations.

Thomas Cook shares rose 2.5 percent in London to 207 pence by 1039 GMT and Arcandor shares were unchanged in Frankfurt, while the German mid-cap index was down 1 percent.

Middelhoff, who joined Arcandor in 2004 as chairman and became chief executive in 2005, had initially aimed at a share price of "40 plus x".

"One thing I haven't achieved is the share price," Middelhoff said, referring to his bold target.

"I shouldn't have said it like that."

In January, Arcandor had confirmed its previously given outlook that saw 2008/09 adjusted operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) at more than 1.1 billion euros.

Adjusted EBITDA for the three months to Dec. 30 rose 18 percent to 179.8 million euros on adjusted sales of 4.79 billion euros, up 1.1 percent. The figures are adjusted for changes in the reporting dates of Thomas Cook.

According to Thomson Reuters StarMine, which weighs analysts' forecasts according to their track record, Arcandor shares trade at about 4.6-times 12-month forecast earnings, at a discount to peers like Metro or Douglas.

Analysts referred to Arcandor's net debt situation combined with a deteriorating retail environment as the main reasons.

German retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third consecutive month in December. ($1=.7735 Euro) (Reporting by Eva Kuehnen; Editing by Sharon Lindores)

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