✂ Fed’s first rate cut since 2020: Use our free Stock Screener to find new opportunities fastExplore for FREE

Japan manuf mood hits trough, service sector sags

Published 05/17/2009, 07:40 PM
Updated 05/17/2009, 07:48 PM
TTEF
-

* Confidence at manufacturers edges up from record low

* Service-sector firms' sentiment hits all-time low

* Corp sentiment seen up by Aug, doubt remains over recovery

By Izumi Nakagawa

TOKYO, May 18 (Reuters) - Confidence at Japan's manufacturers edged up from record low levels, a Reuters monthly poll showed, as rebounds in exports and production suggest the world's No.2 economy may have reached a trough in the first quarter.

In a sign that the impact of a collapse in global demand has spread to service-sector firms, however, confidence at non-manufacturers hit a record low, the poll showed, underlining the view that any recovery in the economy will be fragile.

Both manufacturers and service-sector firms expect the situation to improve over the next three months, but they see the recovery largely as a reaction to a sharp plunge in global demand and a hefty inventory cutback since late last year.

"Orders have been recovering since March as a rebound to a rapid inventory adjustment," an official at an electric machinery firm said in the survey of 400 major firms taken April 23-May 13.

A total 211 companies responded.

"But the plunge was so big that we still have to say the situation is worse than before" the global financial crisis, the official said.

the reuters tankan survey found manufacturers' sentiment improved 7 points to minus 69 in May, and is seen climbing a further 18 points to minus 51 in August.

Sentiment among non-manufacturers worsened 6 points to minus 44 but is seen up 9 points to minus 35 in August.

The Reuters Tankan and BOJ tankan show a correlation of 95 percent for their headline sentiment indexes for manufacturers since the Reuters survey started in 1998.

For a graphic tracking the Reuters Tankan against the BOJ tankan click http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/059/JP_RTKN0509.jpg

The poll tracks the Bank of Japan's closely watched tankan quarterly corporate survey. The March tankan, released on April 1, showed Japanese business confidence crumpled at its fastest pace on record to an all-time low but saw a slight improvement by July.

In the Reuters Tankan, sentiment in the electric machinery and autos/transport equipment sectors, major industries in Japan, remained mired near record low levels.

"It is still unclear how the economy may recover," one transport equipment firm said in the survey.

"As the situation is severe with the exchange rate, earnings remain bad at an export-reliant firm like ours."

The dollar fell to a two-month low against the yen to around 95 yen last week, amid renewed concerns about the depth of the global recession.

That was below the exchange rate of 97.18 yen expected on average by big manufacturers in the BOJ's March tankan.

Among non-manufacturers, all but wholesalers and those in the category of other services grew less confident about the underlying situation.

"Customers remain on guard against a deterioration in living standards, holding off from buying things and opting to buy low-priced items," said a retailer in the Reuters Tankan survey.

Japanese exports and industrial production have rebounded after sharp fall since late last year, raising the hope that the worst may be over for the export-driven economy.

Economists polled by Reuters have forecast a 4.2 percent contraction in the first quarter, after a 3.2 percent contraction in October-December.

Preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures are due at 8:50 a.m. on Wednesday (2350 GMT Tuesday).

Analysts, however, expect any recovery in the world's No.2 economy to be fragile as many companies slash jobs and cut back on capital spending on weak domestic demand.

In the Reuters Tankan the percentage of respondents who say conditions are poor is subtracted from those who say they are good. A negative figure means most of those surveyed are pessimistic. (Writing by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Michael Watson)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.