Italy output weaker than expected after France drop

Published 12/10/2010, 04:51 AM
Updated 12/10/2010, 04:56 AM

ROME, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Italian industrial output was weaker than expected in October, slipping 0.1 percent from a month earlier after a 2.1 percent fall in September and pointing to sluggish growth going into the new year.

The data followed a 0.8 percent monthly fall in France reported earlier on Friday, and a 2.9 percent surge in Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, which continues to outperform its neighbours, according to data released on Wednesday.

Germany, France and Italy make up at least two thirds of the euro zone's economic output.

"This is quite a disappointing number and it's clear that the economy has lost momentum after the strong first half," said Citbibank's Giada Giani.

"We see Italian GDP rising just 0.2 percent in the last quarter, like in Q3."

The median forecast of a Reuter's poll of 17 analysts had projected a monthly output reading of +0.7 percent. Forecasts spanned +0.2 percent to +1.4 percent.

While Germany and France's recoveries seem to be steaming ahead, there is concern that other weaker euro zone economies are struggling and that worse is to come when cutbacks forced on them by the sovereign debt crisis begin to bite next year.

Marco Stringa of Deutsche Bank said Italy's data was "in line with his downbeat outlook on the Italian economy" going into 2011.

"Still, this doesn't compromise the fundamentally sound outlook for Italy's public debt, which is the thing that really matters at the moment," he added.

On Dec. 14 Eurostat will issue aggregate data for the euro zone as a whole. The median forecast in a Reuters survey conducted prior to the latest national data pointed to a 1.3 per cent monthly rise, following a 0.9 percent drop in September.

On a work-day adjusted year-on-year basis, Italian output in October was up 2.9 percent, compared to a 4.4 percent increase in September.

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