* 2010, 2011 GDP seen up 1 pct, little changed vs July poll
* Debt seen 118.5 pct of GDP in 2010, 120.1 percent in 2011
By Gavin Jones
ROME, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Italy faces weak growth this year and next and its public finances will remain out of line, according to a Reuters poll which showed a broadly stable outlook compared with three months ago.
The median forecast in the survey of around 20 analysts, taken over the past week, points to a 1.0 percent rise in gross domestic product both this year and in 2011, after contracting 5.0 percent in 2009, the steepest drop for more than 50 years.
The 2010 forecast is fractionally up from a 0.9 percent projection in the last Reuters survey in July, reflecting firmer-than-expected growth of 0.5 percent reported for the second quarter and 0.4 percent in the first.
However the full-year forecast is below the government's 1.2 percent goal. Analysts warn activity is already slowing and will remain modest in coming quarters, as austerity measures in Italy and abroad crimp consumer spending and weigh on exports.
The growth projection for 2011, at 1.0 percent, is unchanged from July and well below the 1.5 percent official forecast.
One percent growth is now considered around the maximum non-inflationary rate for Italy, which has been one of Europe's most sluggish economies for more than a decade.
"The recovery will struggle to sustain the pace witnessed so far," said Raj Badiani of IHS Global Insight.
"The boost from brighter manufacturing activity is set to fade and consumers are experiencing unfavourable household income developments, with overall incomes strangled by still-falling employment and slowing wage growth."
After slowing to a projected 0.3 percent between July and September, growth is forecast at just 0.1 percent in the current quarter and 0.2 percent for the first two quarters of 2011.
BUDGET CUTS
The centre-right government's austerity package aims to lower the budget deficit by 25 billion euros between 2011 and 2012 with measures such as cutting funding to local government, delaying retirement and freezing public sector pay.
However, analysts say the budget will be a brake on growth but will not rein in public finances as targeted.
Those polled forecast the fiscal deficit to fall from 5.1 percent of GDP this year to 4.3 percent in 2011, almost half a point above the government's 3.9 percent goal.
Italy's public debt, among the largest in the euro zone, is seen climbing to 118.5 percent of GDP this year from 115.8 percent in 2009 and hitting a new high of 120.1 percent in 2011.
The 2011 forecast is up from 119.8 percent in the July survey and compares with a government target of 119.2 percent.
The average unemployment rate is seen rising in 2010 for the third year running to 8.5 percent, but dipping in 2011 to 8.4 percent. Those are below July forecasts of 8.8 percent in both years and also below the jobless rates of many euro zone states.
However, the Bank of Italy estimates Italy's figure would already be over 10 percent if it included workers sent home on reduced pay and the thousands of Italians who have given up looking for work and so do not count in official data.
(Polling by Viviana Venturi; Editing by Catherine Evans)