* Budget deficit to stay above 12 pct/GDP in 2010 -ESRI
* Government debt to jump due to deficit, "bad bank"
* Growth to return in second half of 2010
DUBLIN, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Ireland's plans for savings worth 4 billion euros in the 2010 budget will stabilise the deficit, but it will still be more than four times above levels allowed by the EU, a government-funded research body said on Tuesday.
Analysts say the strain of pushing through the planned spending cuts could topple Prime Minister Brian Cowen's unpopular governing coalition this year, with trade unions already planning a series of protests against the measures.
Even if the austerity steps are enacted, the Economic and Social Research Institute said the deficit will reach 12.8 percent of gross domestic product next year, compared with the 12.9 percent forecast for 2009 and the European Union's limit of 3 percent.
Gross government debt will rise to 75.7 percent of GDP next year from just 25 percent in 2007 at the end of the "Celtic Tiger" boom, whose sudden crash has made Ireland one of the weakest links in the euro zone.
The National Asset Management Agency, Dublin's "bad bank" scheme to pay 54 billion euros for banks' risky commercial property loans, is set to increase debt by a further 33 percent of GDP to close to 110 percent, the ESRI said.
Ireland's net debt will rise by less due to the corresponding assets taken over from the banks.
The ESRI said it expected GDP to contract 7.2 percent in 2009 and by 1.1 percent in 2010.
"Underlying these annual forecasts is a quarterly profile in which we expect growth to return in the latter part of 2010, although at a very modest pace," it said. (Reporting by Andras Gergely; Editing by Leslie Adler)