🔺 What to do when markets are at an all-time high? Find smart bargains, like these.See Undervalued Stocks

INTERVIEW-UPDATE 1-Polish C/A gap revision to top 1 pct/GDP

Published 04/11/2011, 08:56 AM
Updated 04/11/2011, 09:00 AM

* Revision to raise 2010 C/A gap by at least 1 pct of GDP

* To limit the size of errors and omissions

* Revision unlikely to affect GDP figures, cbank says

By Marcin Goettig

WARSAW, April 11 (Reuters) - The June revision of Polish balance of payments data for 2010 will involve an increase in the current account deficit of at least one percent of gross domestic product, a central bank official said on Monday.

But Jozef Sobota, who heads the bank's statistics department, said the revision was unlikely to affect the GDP data that is at the heart of market concerns around the data, echoing previous reassurances from Governor Marek Belka.

Poland's current account deficit stood at 3.4 pct of GDP last year, latest data show, but the 'errors and omissions' category in the balance of payments accounted for 3.7 pct of GDP, leaving markets jittery over the true size of the gap.

The bank's revision will entail incorporating a more precise estimate of private car imports and also the size of cash tranfers of individuals to Poland, Sobota told Reuters.

"Imports of second-hand cars could limit the errors and omissions balance by around 20 percent. Imports would then grow and the current account deficit rise by this amount. It should not, however, change the GDP figure for last year," Sobota said.

"We can estimate that a related correction will increase the C/A deficit by around 1 pct of GDP for 2010," he added.

The bank also has enough data now to expect a cut in the value of private transfers to Poland, which would further increase the C/A gap at the expense of errors and omissions, Sobota said.

IMPORTS FROM GERMANY

Markets were set on edge at the end of March when an adviser to Belka said errors and omissions in the 2010 balance of payments could be due to underestimated imports from Germany, Poland's key trade partner. [ID:nSLALEE7RH]

The figures were later explained by the statistics office as resulting from different treatment of exports and imports under international accounting rules. But the adviser's comments spooked investors, who feared such a gap could lower past growth figures and increase reported debt to GDP, triggering severe budget spending cuts under Polish law. [ID:nLDE72O0E6]

Poland's economy, the largest in the European Union's eastern wing, grew by 3.8 percent last year, up from 1.7 percent in 2009 when it was the only state in the EU to avoid recession.

In efforts to make its balance of payments data more precise, the central bank is working on a better assessment of assets held by foreigners living in Poland as well as the value of cash they send outside the country, Sobota said.

With errors and omissions accounting for 8 percent of turnover on its current account, Poland is among EU members with higher-than-average ratios, Sobota said.

"However, Sweden, Finland and France have higher ratios. In our region Bulgaria has a higher ratio," Sobota said.

"We are able to significantly correct the current ratio so that it comes close to the median for other EU countries, that is between three and four percent," he added. (Writing by Maciej Onoszko; editing by Patrick Graham) (maciej.onoszko@thomsonreuters.com; +48 22 653 9711; RM:maciej.onoszko.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.