By Linda Sieg
TOKYO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) looks increasingly likely to oust its long-ruling rival in an election this year, the DPJ's election campaign chief said on Wednesday, in a sign of the party's growing confidence.
And while a deepening recession might make some voters wary of putting the novice opposition party in charge of the world's second-biggest economy, the Democrats are betting more people will decide a historic change is the less risky option.
"Last year ... a lot of people thought the ruling parties would be able to keep their majority, if only barely," Hirotaka Akamatsu, the DPJ's election campaign committee chair, told Reuters in an interview.
"But now, 70-80 percent think the DPJ can win a majority on its own or, in the worst case, together with (small allies) the Social Democrats and the People's New Party," he said.
"That's not just our wishful thinking. According to various surveys ... clearly, the likelihood of a reversal of ruling and opposition parties is getting very high," he said.
Ousting the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled almost without a break since its founding in 1955, would require a leap of faith by voters at the best of times, and economic anxiety has favoured a familiar pair of hands in the past.
Analysts estimate Japan suffered its biggest contraction since 1974 in the last quarter of 2008 after shrinking in the two previous quarters, and debate is heating up over whether a return to deflation looms.
But Akamatsu shrugged off any suggestion that the economic gloom would hurt his party's chances at the polls.
"Some may think that way, but others think that in a situation where we don't know what the future holds or when things will calm down, the economy can't be revived without fundamental change and a change in government," he said.
"I think the trend is stronger towards giving the DPJ a chance."
FED-UP VOTERS?
The Democrats are a mix of former LDP members, ex-socialists, and younger conservative lawmakers.
DPJ head Ichiro Ozawa, himself a former LDP heavyweight, has pledged to reduce bureaucrats' control over policies, shrink social and economic gaps, and adopt a diplomatic stance more independent of Toyko's close ally Washington.
Akamatsu acknowledged that voter frustration with the LDP and Prime Minister Taro Aso rather than a groundswell of support for the Democrats was a key factor behind the opposition's improving prospects.
"In truth, it's because the cabinet is just too awful," he said. "If you look at various surveys, a lot of supporters of the LDP are saying they will vote for the DPJ this time."
Analysts tend to agree. "It results from the mismanagement and exhaustion of the LDP rather than enthusiastic support for DPJ policies," said Takeshi Sasaki, a political science professor at Gakushuin University in Tokyo. He said the Democrats had a better than even chance of winning the election.
Aso's two predecessors resigned abruptly after failing to cope with a policy deadlock due to a divided parliament, where the Democrats and their allies control the upper house and can delay legislation and stymy policies.
The LDP tapped Aso as leader last September in hopes the outspoken nationalist could lead them to victory in an election that must be held no later than October this year. But a series of gaffes and policy flip-flops has slashed the premier's support to below 20 percent, making him wary of calling an early poll.
Akamatsu said Aso might call an election for May after the passage of the national budget for 2009/10 from April, or try to wait until close to the Sept. 10 end of lawmakers' terms, in which case the LDP might decide to dump him before going to the polls.
"The longer the election is put off, the more the government's support rate will fall, so that's OK for us and might even be advantageous, but I don't think Japan's economy and society will survive that," he said. (Editing by Hugh Lawson)