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INTERVIEW-Romania FinMin eyes preventive EU/IMF help package

Published 02/24/2009, 08:07 AM
Updated 02/24/2009, 08:08 AM

By Luiza Ilie and Radu Marinas

BUCHAREST, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Romanian Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea, in his strongest comments to date on the likelihood of the country seeking International Monetary Fund (IMF) cash to aid its economy, said a protective IMF/EU deal may be hard to avoid.

The aid could help shore up jittery market sentiment and avert a potential financing crisis stemming from Romania's high dependence on foreign cash.

"This thing could be avoided if we knew for instance that the corporate sector or the situation in the economy and in the EU will not worsen," Pogea told Reuters in an interview, responding to a question on whether an IMF/EU deal was avoidable.

"But because there are many uncertainties, a gram of prevention is worth as much as a kilogram of repair ... Nothing is too expensive for the financial stability of the country.

"We're taking into account at least two options."

Asked if Romania should get external financing even if it might not need it, Pogea said: "Yes", without elaborating.

Many economists believe Romania is next in line to seek EU/IMF help in deals similar to those sought last year by Hungary and Latvia as it struggles to plug its current account deficit and slash a fiscal shortfall.

The government and the central bank have been discussing in recent days a likely size of a deal, with Pogea saying earlier this month that Romania needs 6-10 billion euros in external help.

Top politicians have said Romania may try to get cash from the EU only, hoping to avoid IMF aid that would likely come with stricter conditions, and Prime Minister Emil Boc has said a decision on potential IMF involvement will be taken this month.

"The government, after consultations with the central bank, will opt for a package with an optimal structure in terms of covering the public deficit and the external balance of payments," Pogea said.

"It's good to have an umbrella ... To restore trust in the system."

RISING THREATS

In a sharp reversal of fortune, Romania has shifted from being the fastest growing European Union member last year to one seen as the most economically vulnerable, largely due to worries over its ability to finance its current account deficit.

At 12 percent of gross domestic product last year, its external deficit was one of the largest in the EU, although smaller than Bulgaria's 24-percent shortfall.

Market concerns about Romania's ability to finance its trade gap and current spending weakened the leu currency to record lows against the euro last month and wiped out 80 percent of the stock exchange's value since the start of 2007.

Investors fear that without sufficient foreign investment and cash floating to Romania's largely foreign-owned banks to finance lending, the country faces the risk of running out of money to pay debts and keep the economy functioning.

But Pogea moved to reassure markets that credit lines at key banks in Romania were being maintained, addressing fears that foreign owners were not giving their local subsidiaries cash.

He also said he was determined to meet his goal of cutting the budget deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product from 5 percent last year, even if the economy slows more than expected.

"If we see difficulties when it comes to relaunching economic growth and revenues do not meet our expectations, we will adjust spending on goods, services and personnel, to keep the budget balance," he said.

Pogea reiterated plans to keep 2014 as a goal for Romania to adopt the euro, saying these would be included in an upcoming convergence report for Brussels. (Writing by Radu Marinas; Editing by Jason Neely)

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