By Kuba Jaworowski and Pawel Florkiewicz
WARSAW, April 16 (Reuters) - Poland must stick to its original central budget deficit plan for 2009 to prove its fiscal credibility or it could jeopardise access to the IMF flexible credit line, a central banker said on Thursday.
Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner also said in an interview with Reuters that the 10-strong panel should pause in its monetary easing campaign because inflation accelerated in the first months of 2009.
Wasilewska-Trenkner, who served as a deputy finance minister responsible for budget policy for almost a decade, said the flexible credit line (FCL) Poland hopes to get from the IMF Fund could be at risk if the deficit target is raised.
A government source told Reuters on Wednesday Warsaw may revise upwards its 2009 budget gap aim to 21 billion zlotys from an original 18.2 billion zlotys by mid-June.
The comment drove bonds lower amid investors' concerns this could impact the country's financing and that the economy could be slowing more than previously expected.
"We got the money from the IMF because a specific fiscal policy roadmap was presented, including (a plan) to keep the budget deficit (unchanged)," said Wasilewska-Trenkner.
"We have the possibility to use (an IMF facility of) $20.5 billion but we cannot blow the money because this window may then close, and we may not be able to draw from this window again," she added.
At the same time, she said the FCL should boost Polish credibility and thus make it easier for the European Union's largest ex-communist economy to finance its debt.
"From what I know there is no need to revise the budget now... I'm more concerned with the 2010 budget than with the 2009 budget," she said, adding the deficit could reach a total of 12-13 billion zlotys in the first nine months of 2009.
SOME GROWTH STILL ATTAINABLE
Wasilewska-Trenkner said she expects economic growth to slow to about 1.5-1.7 percent in 2009 from 4.8 percent in 2008, but many analysts are less optimistic and think expansion will be far more modest, putting pressure on budget revenues.
After the first quarter, Poland's central budget shortfall amounted to 10.6 billion zlotys or 58 percent of the 2009 plan.
"Increasing the (central) budget deficit translates into a higher general government deficit... This may create problems with meeting the (euro zone entry) fiscal criterion," she said.
The government says it is determined to keep its general government deficit, a wider deficit measure calculated according to European Union methodology, below 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year to qualify for the euro zone in 2012.
The deficit stood at 2.7 percent last year and many analysts say keeping it under the 3 percent ceiling this year may not be possible as the economy slows sharply and budget revenues fall.
Wasilewska-Trenkner, widely seen as an advocate of tight monetary policy, reiterated her view that the MPC should adopt a wait-and-see approach on rates for now.
"Right now one cannot say that there is a need to end (the policy of) cutting rates but it would definitely be good to wait," she said.
Polish data this week showed March inflation rose to 3.6 percent from 3.3 percent in February.
"In my opinion, prices in April will be more or less the same as in March so inflation may stand at 3.5-3.6 percent. In May we should see a slight easing," she said.
The MPC has already slashed rates by 225 basis points to 3.75 percent since last November to underpin the slowing economy and a slender majority of analysts polled by Reuters still expects another 25 basis point cut later in April. (Writing by Kuba Jaworowski; Editing by Toby Chopra)