🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

INTERVIEW-Loose rate policies suit Asia, for now-ADB chief

Published 11/23/2009, 11:14 PM
Updated 11/23/2009, 11:18 PM

By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Asia's speedy economic recovery relative to the rest of the world is not yet strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy, Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda said on Monday.

"You see, at this stage the economic recovery, even if not fragile, (is) not so solid. So monetary policy will continue to be expansionary for some time," Kuroda told Reuters in an interview before a speech at Columbia University.

"That might encourage some asset markets to overreact, so to speak. But at this stage, it is not advisable for monetary authorities to tighten monetary policies," he said.

The ADB expects developing Asian economies on average to grow 3.9 percent this year and 6.4 percent next year.

The so-called Group of Three or G3 -- Japan, the United States and the euro zone -- are projected by the bank to contract 3.7 percent this year and grow 1.1 percent in 2010.

Kuroda said inflationary pressures remain low and in fact are not rising in many countries, allowing them to keep interest rates low.

But when they do start to take away the monetary and or fiscal stimulus, there is no compelling reason for Asia do so all at once.

"It all depends on country circumstances... No need for emerging economies to exit in a synchronized manner, or fiscal and monetary policy exits at the same time." Kuroda said.

WHO TIGHTENS FIRST?

Kuroda pointed to South Korea's measures to reign in real estate prices as careful management that has allowed them to hold off on raising interest rates.

South Korea's top state-run research agency, the Korea Development Institute (KDI), said the government should phase out emergency policy measures after predicting Asia's fourth-largest economy would grow 5.5 percent next year.

For India, Kuroda noted that while the country managed the crisis and its own fiscal situation relatively well, the nation's high deficit will probably result in it being among the first to start removing stimulus measures.

"If you look at the macro figures, then India's fiscal situation is not so good. India's fiscal deficit in relation to GDP is quite high. I think once the economic recovery is solidified, probably the government would exit," he said.

India's fiscal deficit is forecast to rise to 6.8 percent of GDP in the year through March 2010, a 16-year high, compared with 6.2 percent in the previous year.

This is a result of fiscal stimulus measures as well as the economic downturn, which cut government revenues.

Separately, Kuroda reiterated that emerging economies may not benefit from having free floating currencies.

"Generally, I think for emerging economies, free-float won't provide the best basis for their economic engagement with the global market... That does not mean that all emerging countries need or should adopt heavily managed float systems," Kuroda said.

"Many emerging economy currency markets are thin, shallow, and subject to large fluctuations if left completely free. So some sort of management is necessary and appropriate." (Editing by Tomasz Janowski) ((daniel.bases@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6131; Reuters Messaging: daniel.bases.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.