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INTERVIEW-Fitch sticks to negative outlook on Iceland

Published 09/24/2010, 09:01 AM
Updated 09/24/2010, 09:04 AM

* Fitch keeping negative outlook on Iceland

* Says needs more clarity on Icesave, banks, FX controls

STOCKHOLM, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Iceland must show more progress on rebuilding its banks, lifting capital controls and resolving its debt disputes before the island's negative outlook can be adjusted, a Fitch Ratings senior director said on Friday.

Paul Rawkins said a recent ruling by Iceland's supreme court on foreign exchange-linked loans provided greater clarity for the country's banks but that there was still much work to be done on the restructuring the corporate loan books.

"The banks need to deal with their corporate loan exposures before they can contribute to economic recovery," Rawkins told Reuters in a telephone interview, adding that the island's export-heavy economy was vulnerable to another downturn abroad.

Iceland, whose BB+ non-investment grade rating is lower than Fitch's rating for crisis-hit Greece, has been picking up the pieces of its shattered economy following the collapse of its top banks and crown currency in 2008.

The economics minister said this week the economy was close to bottoming out and could return to modest quarterly growth in the fourth quarter.

An improved economic picture has helped tighten the cost to insure Icelandic sovereign debt against default for five years to 311 basis points this week, from a 2010 high of 680 basis points reached in February, Reuters data showed.

Borrowing costs have more than halved since the crisis, easing economic pain, and the island's battered crown currency has appreciated more than 16 percent so far this year.

Still, strict capital controls put in place to stem an outflow of funds during the crisis were preventing non-resident investors from leaving and serving as a drag on the country's credit worthiness, Rawkins said.

"Greater clarity on a number of contingent liabilities, including Icesave, and issues in the banking system, as well as a clearer timetable for lifting capital controls would be helpful," he said.

IMF AND ICESAVE

Iceland's top court ruled last week that its banks could use domestic interest rates when calculating charges on foreign currency loans for automobiles and mortgages, removing concerns the government would have to inject more capital into its banking system.

The decision followed a June ruling that loans provided during the country's boom years had been illegally linked to foreign exchange rates.

Rawkins said it appeared Iceland was able to ring-fence corporate loans -- a positive for the banks -- but that much more work needed to be done to restructure customer debt while demand for new loans was weak.

Iceland's central bank said in June just under one-fifth of the country's bank loans were being paid on time following restructuring, while over 40 percent were in default.

Rawkins believed Iceland would have no problems getting another tranche of funds from lenders following a review by the International Monetary Fund of its programme next week.

However, an ongoing spat with Britain and the Netherlands over more than $5 billion owed to the two nations for money lost in failed Icelandic bank accounts could potentially delay further reviews, he said.

(Additional reporting by Sebastian Tong in London)

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