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INTERVIEW-BOJ set to retain easy monetary policy -IMF

Published 04/01/2011, 06:16 PM
Updated 04/01/2011, 06:20 PM
BIG
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* IMF seed BOJ maintaining accommodative stance

* IMF likely to cut 2011 growth forecast for Japan

* Repatriation flows won't be big driver of yen

By Lesley Wroughton

WASHINGTON, April 1 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its easy monetary policy stance when it meets next week, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Friday.

Mahmood Pradhan, IMF mission chief to Japan, said the devastating March 11 earthquake would have a short-term impact on Japanese growth, although reconstruction efforts could bring a sharp recovery next year.

The IMF is set to cut its 2011 forecast for Japanese growth when it unveils updated figures on April 11 in its World Economic Outlook, he added.

"It would be appropriate of the BOJ to maintain a very accommodative stance," Pradhan told Reuters Insider. "I think that is what they will do."

Japan's central bank is expected to revise down its economic assessment when it meets on April 6-7 in the wake of the nuclear crisis. For now, the dominant market view is that it will stand pat on monetary policy although the central bank has expressed its readiness to ease policy if the quake impact threatens Japan's fragile economy.

Pradhan said there had been an impressive coordinated effort by Japanese agencies to address the immediate humanitarian in the aftermath of the disaster.

He said short-term movements in the Japanese yen were hard to explain, but dismissed the role of speculators in driving up the currency.

"I think the yen in the longer term sense is where it should be," Pradhan said, adding, "The yen reflects the underlying performance of Japan's economy."

He said there was no evidence that the repatriation of funds to pay for reconstruction costs was driving up the currency.

"Our assessment is that the yen repatriation flows over the medium term will not make a material difference to value of the yen," Pradhan said. "Put it another way, we do not see repatriation flows to be the big driver of the yen." (Editing by Leslie Adler)

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