By S. Murari
CHENNAI, India, May 13 (Reuters) - The final stage of voting in India's closely fought general election began on Wednesday, with signs that a weak coalition could emerge the winner just as the Asian power faces an economic slowdown.
The left-of-centre Congress-led alliance is battling for re-election against a grouping led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a third front of regional and communist parties. The outcome will be known on Saturday.
Indian elections are notoriously hard to predict, but most polls tip Congress as the likely victor. Nonetheless, the pro-business BJP is seen as having gained late traction with some savvy alliance building.
Exit polls, banned during the staggered election, open after the final round of voting closes on Wednesday afternoon.
Either party may have to depend on the parliamentary support of an unstable coalition of regional parties and the communists.
That scenario that could slow key reforms, such as relaxing labour laws, and rock investor confidence in an economy that faces a huge fiscal deficit.
A clue to which party may take power lies with Tamil Nadu, the southern swing state in 2004 election swept by Congress ally Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).
Congress has lost allies in the state, one of the biggest prizes in the national battle with 39 seats. The party faces the resurgence of the AIADMK party, led by a former film star that could become a powerbroker after the polls.
The BJP has no major ally in Tamil Nadu but could be supported by any of the two state parties if it is seen in a position to form a coalition government.
Wednesday's vote was being held in nine provinces, including in the eastern West Bengal state where the ruling communist alliance helped swing the last election in 2004 when its support gave Congress a majority in parliament.
But the communists, who quit the coalition last year angry at a nuclear deal with Washington and ruled out supporting a Congress-led government again, are expected to suffer poll losses because of their farmland acquisition policy.
"People will vote to save their land and livelihood, which means the communists will have a tough time," said Nepal Haldar, a farmer in Kalicharanpur village of West Bengal.
The possibility of a hung parliament could mean the election is decided by backroom deals in the weeks after the election, perhaps leading to a short-lived and unstable government.
Indian shares rose 4.1 percent on Tuesday on speculation the the BJP would form the next government, traders said. (Writing by Krittivas Mukherjee; Editing by David Fox)