🤑 It doesn’t get more affordable. Grab this 60% OFF Black Friday offer before it disappears…CLAIM SALE

IMF sees recent yen falls as reflecting fundamentals

Published 10/14/2023, 11:00 AM
Updated 10/14/2023, 12:35 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo
USD/JPY
-
JGB
-
JP10YT=XX
-

By Leika Kihara

MARRAKECH, Morocco (Reuters) -The yen's recent declines are driven by fundamentals and do not meet any of the considerations that would call for authorities to intervene in the currency market, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Saturday.

"On the yen, our sense is that the exchange rate is driven pretty much by fundamentals. As long as interest rate differentials remain, the yen will continue to face pressure," Sanjaya Panth, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, told reporters.

Authorities in Japan are facing renewed pressure to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen, as investors bet on higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates while the Bank of Japan remains wedded to its super low interest rate policy.

The IMF sees foreign exchange intervention as justified only when there is a severe dysfunction in the market, a heightening of financial stability risks, or a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, Panth said.

"I don't think any of the three considerations are existing right now," he said, when asked whether recent yen falls call for authorities to intervene in the currency market.

Japan bought yen in September and October last year, its first foray in the market to boost the currency since 1998, to stem sharp declines that eventually pushed the yen to a 32-year low of 151.94 to the dollar.

The dollar fetched 149.57 yen on Friday.

The BOJ has been a dovish outlier among a wave of central banks raising interest rates, even as cost-driven price rises have kept inflation above its 2% target for more than a year.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to keep rates ultra-low until inflation durably stays around 2% backed by robust demand and sustained wage increases.

Panth said there were more upside than downside risks to Japan's near-term inflation outlook as the economy was running near full capacity, and price rises were increasingly driven by solid demand.

But he said it was "not yet the time" for the BOJ to raise short-term rates due to uncertainty on how slowing global demand could affect Japan's export-reliant economy.

In the meantime, the BOJ should continue to take steps that allow long-term interest rates to move more flexibly to lay the groundwork for an eventual monetary tightening, he said.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

The BOJ guides short-term rates at -0.1%. It also sets a 0% target for the 10-year bond yield under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. As rising inflation put upward pressure on yields, the bank loosened its tight grip on long-term rates by raising a de-facto cap for the yield in December last year and July.

"What it did in December and July to increase flexibility on long end of the yield curve, was very much steps in the right direction," Panth said.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.