By Natsuko Waki
LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - Even though the sheer pace of an uninterrupted 9-week surge in world stocks suggests some pause may be nigh, investors are unlikely to write off this rally yet.
Crucially, the more than 40 percent rise in equities since the March trough is being accompanied by a whole host of improving indicators of risk, captured most obviously in a decline in volatility.
Asset managers, many of whom have for months been prevented by internal risk officers from buying securities with sky-high volatility, are now seeing a chance to put their money to work and migrate their funds from cash-heavy low-yielding portfolios.
The result is steady flow of capital back in favour of equities and other relatively risky assets given signs the global economy is stabilising and reflationary monetary policies worldwide look set to gain traction.
Next week brings inflation data from the United States, euro zone and Japan. Inflation concerns may not be top of investors' worry list, but rallying commodities and even shipping costs plus concern about the long-term impact of central banks printing money all raise the risks longer term.
"We have seen unprecedented action from central banks and we have not seen the effects of it yet. Quantitative easing pushes money back into financial markets," said Nathalie Merrens, head of product advisory at UK-based private banking and wealth manager Kleinwort Benson.
"Cash was king. But quantitative easing will cause inflation. With inflation, cash will become trash... There aren't many who are net long (equities). If the market continues up, there will be a lot of chasing to do."
RISK BACK ON
The latest rally in the benchmark MSCI world equity index, which follows a record 11.5 percent gain in April, stems from improvement in various risk indicators and economic data which are fanning the risk tolerance level among investors.
The Volatility Index -- Wall Street's fear gauge -- hit its lowest level this week since September, just after the collapse of Lehman Brothers which wreaked havoc in financial markets.
Interbank rates for three-month dollars have fallen below 1 percent for the first time, after rising as high as 5.7 percent in September 2007.
Capital is coming out of safe-haven money markets too. Goldman Sachs says the ratio between total assets in U.S. money market mutual funds and the market capitalisation of the New York Stock Exchange has dropped to 68 percent at the end of April from an all-time high of 85 percent in February.
This compares with the 1989-2009 average of 30 percent plus/minus 10 percent.
The U.S. bank estimates around $100 billion has moved out of money market investments since the beginning of February.
In a further sign that cash is coming out of safe-haven bunkers, global emerging market equity funds posted combined inflows of $3.6 billion through May 6, according to fund tracker EPFR. Emerging bond funds recorded their best week since early in the first quarter in 2008.
Spreads between emerging market sovereign bonds and U.S. Treasuries fell as low as 462 basis points for the first time since early October.
An improving climate in commodities and resources markets is also bolstering investor morale. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a global commodities benchmark, hit a four-month high on Thursday, rising more than 20 percent since early March.
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, rose nearly 50 percent in less than a month.
Underscoring recent positive economic data, Royal Bank of Canada's economic surprise index shot up to its highest level since January 2007.
INVESTING IN UPTREND
Jeremy Grantham, chairman and a member of asset allocation team at Boston-based investment management firm GMO, believes that stocks are likely to run for a while longer yet although a full-scale bull market is unlikely.
"Driven by stimulus and moral hazard, we are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals," Grantham said in a note to clients.
He says the S&P 500 index could go beyond GMO's fair value around 880 to the 1,000-1,100 level before the end of the year. The index is currently trading around 907.
"In a rally to 1,000 or so, the normal commercial bullish bias of the market will of course reassert itself, and everyone and his dog will be claiming it as the next major multi-year bull market," Grantham said.
"But such an event -- a true lasting bull market -- is most unlikely. A large rally here is far more likely to prove a last hurrah."
(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)