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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, commodities rally on brighter Fed view

Published 08/13/2009, 02:36 AM
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* Asia stocks rise after Fed says US economy "leveling out"

* European stock futures up after German GDP

* U.S. dollar softens; commodities climb on Fed comments

* U.S. 30-year yield stable ahead of auction

By Kevin Plumberg

HONG KONG, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Asian stocks and commodities rose on Thursday after the Federal Reserve said it spotted stability in the U.S. economy, spurring investors to buy back shares and other riskier assets and sell U.S. dollars.

Major European stock futures were up between 0.1 to 0.3 percent, the euro rose and German bond futures slipped after a surprise rise in Germany's second quarter gross domestic product.

Commodity bulls pushed oil prices up near $71 a barrel and lifted copper prices to a 10-month high, hoping for sustained demand for raw materials.

Longer maturity U.S. Treasury yields were stable after climbing overnight on disappointment that the Fed said it would slowly wind down its government bond purchasing program by the end of October, leaving dealers to wonder how the market would absorb heavy upcoming supply.

Though Asian stocks gained across the board on Thursday, they were largely unchanged so far in August and investors were still uncertain what would support equities beyond bullish sentiment.

"Market sentiment has warmed up but it is not as if investors are gung-ho bullish. They are still a bit jittery," said Junichi Misawa, senior fund manager at STB Asset Management in Tokyo.

"Stocks appear to be overvalued considering the current level of corporate earnings but I believe that sentiment as it is right now is indicative of a long-lasting run-up."

The more positive Fed comments on the economy pushed key U.S. stock indexes up more than 1 percent overnight, though shares lost steam near the end of the session.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares traded outside Japan rose 2 percent, with the biggest gains spread out across the consumer discretionary, energy, financials and technology sectors.

The index has been choppy in recent weeks but is up 72 percent since March 9, when a global equity rally began.

Japan's Nikkei share average climbed 0.8 percent, driven by a variety of big auto and technology exporters.

Battery maker GS Yuasa and Mizuho Financial were among the most heavily traded stocks in Tokyo.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 2 percent. Shares of Tencent Holdings were up 5 percent and biggest gainer in the index after operator of China's biggest instant messaging platform said late on Wednesday net profit surged 85 percent in the second quarter.

SHANGHAI SHUDDERS

Stocks traded in Shanghai reversed course to trade up 0.9 percent, after tumbling 4.7 percent on Wednesday on worries the market surge has outrun China's economic recovery.

Still the Shanghai composite has chalked up some of the biggest losses in Asia so far this month, down 9.3 percent.

Leon Goldfeld, chief investment officer of HSBC Global Asset Management, believed A-shares in China held medium-term promise.

"A-shares have risen strongly year to date, some profit taking is possible. However, the underlying fundamentals that drive long term returns, remain robust," he said in a note.

Indeed, Asia ex-Japan markets were generally still expected to outperform, despite increasingly expensive valuations, as capital continued to flow into the region amid growing belief that the global economy had turned the corner.

Of the 17 additions that MSCI Inc made to its global equity indices on Wednesday, 11 of the stocks were in Asia, including five traded in Hong Kong.

The Australian dollar rose though the shaky start in Shanghai made dealers reluctant to heap more bets on the currency. The trade ties between China and Australia have made dealers sensitive to moves in Chinese equities.

The Australian dollar was up 0.5 percent to US$0.8370, helped by momentum in global equity momentum.

The U.S. dollar weakened across the board, suggesting the inverse relationship between equities and the dollar was holding up despite softening a bit after the July U.S. payrolls number on Friday led to increased bets on higher U.S. interest rates.

The euro was up 0.4 percent to $1.4263 while the U.S. dollar fell 0.1 percent to 96.18 yen.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 3.73 percent, relatively unchanged from late on Wednesday in New York. The 30-year yield edged up 2 basis point to 4.54 percent after climbing 9 basis points overnight.

"The wildcard will now be todays final leg of the three-part auction -- namely the sale of $15 billion of 30-year bonds where indirect bidder participation could be a significant swing factor," Standard Chartered strategists said in a note.

The premium of the 10-year yield over the 2-year yield, otherwise known as the yield curve, was at 255 basis points, still lower than 275 basis points reached in late May.

Copper traded in Shanghai was up 4.3 percent after three-month copper traded on the London Metal Exchange hit the highest since Oct 1, at $6,340 a tonne on enthusiasm about the Federal Reserve's characterisation of the economy.

U.S. oil for September delivery was up 1 percent to $70.85 a barrel and Brent rose 1 percent to $73.64. In late June, U.S. crude hit an 8-month high of $73.38. (Additional reporting by Aiko Hayashi in TOKYO) (Editing by Kazunori Takada)

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