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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares up as markets seek positive jobs surprise

Published 05/08/2009, 05:18 AM
Updated 05/08/2009, 05:24 AM
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* Shares climb as U.S. bank tests produce no big shocks

* Dollar slips slightly

* Markets seek positive surprise from U.S. employment data

By David Stamp

LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - Shares climbed on Friday and the dollar slipped slightly after stress tests on U.S. banks produced no big shocks, but stocks sought a positive surprise from U.S. employment data later to keep the rally going.

Crude prices climbed towards $58 a barrel, heading for weekly gains of more than 8 percent on hopes that demand for oil will revive. Longer-dated euro zone government bond prices fell and the yield curve steepened after the European Central Bank revealed steps to repair the banking system on Thursday.

Investors sighed with relief after U.S. regulators ordered top banks to raise nearly $75 billion in capital, a sum which analysts said was relatively modest, to help them to withstand further shocks to the financial system.

While the test results removed one major uncertainty from the market on Thursday, U.S. payrolls data due at 1230 GMT provided another.

TheMSCI world equity index was up 0.97 percent at 237.36 at 0846 GMT but the mood was not uniformly confident across the globe. Asian shares lost steam on Friday, although they remained up about 9 percent this week, bringing gains since their 2009 low in early March to around 51 percent.

European shares climbed as traders hoped that a run of better -- or at least less bad -- economic data would continue, prolonging a strong recovery in stocks. The FTSEurofirst 300 index was up 1.19 percent to 861.53 at 0947 GMT.

Investors were looking for signs of slowing U.S. job losses to reinforce hopes that the end of the global recession is near, and support the improved sentiment which has buoyed stock markets and riskier currencies in the past two months.

LAST HURDLE?

"This (stress test result) could be seen by many as the last hurdle for the markets to continue their stellar bull run," said Chris Hossain, senior sales manager at ODL Securities. "Markets tend to show where we should be in 18 months time, and for the time being, a sense of optimism is in the air."

The Reuters consensus forecast is for 590,000 U.S. jobs lost last month, a mild improvement from 663,000 slashed in March. But the unemployment rate is seen at 8.9 percent, up from 8.5 percent the previous month..

The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies, as some traders picked up the euro and sterling, currencies perceived to hold higher risk.

"In previous months, it's always been how much worse the payrolls will be. But this month the shoe is on the other foot and people are hoping for a positive surprise," said Johan Javeus, chief currency strategist at SEB Merchant Bank.

The dollar index, which tracks its movement against a basket of currencies, slipped around 0.2 percent to 83.725.

The euro climbed as high as around $1.3432 in early European trade, rising 0.2 percent on the day and recovering from a session low of $1.3343.

NEXT WAVE

Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX strategy at Calyon in Hong Kong, said that a smaller drop in the number of jobs lost would support improved investor confidence. However, more was needed to drive forward the recent rally in riskier major currencies.

"For the next wave of this rally to come through, you need to see more fuel on the fire and that would mean more significant improvements in data," Kotecha said.

Ten-year bond yields were 4.9 basis points higher at 3.439 percent, while 2-year paper outperformed with yields 5 basis points lower at 1.372 percent, supported by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet saying that interest rates could fall further.

The ECB cut rates a quarter percentage point on Thursday to 1.0 percent, and announced a series of unconventional measures to drag down long-term borrowing costs in the euro zone.

U.S. Treasury debt prices rose as some investors hunted bargains when bond prices fell after the poor results of a 30-year Treasury auction on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year note rose 7/32 in price to yield 3.321 percent, down 2.6 basis points from late U.S. trade on Thursday.

Oil extended gains as signs the global economy may have reached bottom multiplied. U.S. light crude for June delivery rose $1.02 to $57.73 a barrel by 0634 GMT, up 1.8 percent after having settled up 37 cents at $56.71 a barrel on Thursday, the highest settlement since Nov. 14.

(Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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