* Dollar edges up but faces risks that could drag it lower
* Will Bernanke talk QE? Will the US brand China manipulator?
* Stocks, commodities closely tied to dollar's fate
By Kevin Plumberg
HONG KONG, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Investors took profits on gains in Asian equities this week but kept the U.S. dollar close to a 10-month low and commodities near two-year highs ahead of a speech by the head of the Federal Reserve.
Major European stock markets opened higher, with Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> up 0.13 percent, France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> up 0.23 percent and Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> rising 0.4 percent.
The dollar steadied after plumbing a low for the year against major currencies overnight, having dropped 7 percent since September on expectations the Fed will soon have to flood the banking system with freshly printed cash to support the economy.
An indication that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is getting close to this decision and perhaps considering other measures such as targeting inflation or even gross domestic product could unleash more dollar selling and buying of emerging market equities, commodities and longer-term bonds. [ID:nN14141178]
However, with bets against the dollar significantly large, the risk of a bounce is appreciable.
"We are concerned that the market is short dollar based on a deep expectation that the Fed Chairman will hint strongly at an aggressive QE programme," Steven Englander, head of G10 foreign exchange stratgey at Citi, said in a note.
"While we do not see the Fed as having an incentive to disappoint the FX or bond markets, it would be easy for hesitation to do damage at this stage."
The euro was steady at $1.4069 after hitting the highest
since January on Thursday around $1.4121
The U.S. dollar index <.DXY>, a gauge of performance against six other major currencies, was largely unchanged on the day after dropping to the lowest since December 2009.
In addition to Bernanke's speech, investors are also on the lookout for a decision by the White House on whether to name China a currency manipulator, a moniker that could cool Sino-U.S. relations ahead of a G20 summit in November meant to soothe global currency tensions. [ID:nN14134313]
IN THE DOLLAR'S WAKE
The dollar's decline as a result of very loose Fed policy has drawn political consternation and triggered financial upheaval. Investors have been meanwhile aligning their portfolios with how asset markets have reacted to the weak dollar.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index <.CRB> and the MSCI all-country world equities index <.MIWD00000PUS> have a 0.9 inverse correlation with the dollar index on a 90-day basis, meaning basically stocks and commodities have been moving in the opposite direction of the dollar.
The CRB index of 19 commodity prices <.CRB> reached its highest since October 2008 on Thursday.
After hitting the highest since July 2008 on Thursday,
London Metal Exchange copper edged up 0.4 percent to $8,430 a
tonne
Gold inched up 0.3 percent to $1,380.35 an ounce
In equities, Japan's Nikkei share average finished 0.9 percent <.N225> lower, hurt by weakness among banking shares. Despite a 2 percent gain on Thursday, the index continues to underperform other Asian markets this month.
The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan slipped 0.2 percent <.MIAPJ0000PUS>, with declines evenly spread across the sectors after hitting the highest since June 2008 in the prior session.
Having some of the biggest developing economies in the world, Asia has been sucking in portfolio investment from abroad at a rapid pace. In general, emerging market equity funds have absorbed more than $60 billion in net inflows this year, $23.3 billion of which has come since the beginning of September, fund tracker EPFR Global said in a note.
Traders in Asia bought back some of the U.S. Treasuries
sold during Thursday's U.S. session. The 10-year yield slipped
to 2.49 percent
With the benchmark yield dropping like a stone since April, down 134 basis points, investors and dealers alike were wondering just how much further could they fall if Bernanke flags another round of quantitative easing.
"I feel it's a bit unhealthy that financial markets from the dollar to gold and emerging market shares are already rising on quantitative easing hopes when the Fed hasn't even started it," said a trader at a Japanese bank.
"But it's hard to argue against a further fall in U.S. bond yields. I expect the 10-year yield to stay in a 2.0-2.5 percent band in the near future." (Additional reporting by Reuters Market Analyst Wang Tao in SINGAPORE and Hideyuki Sano in TOKYO; Editing by Nick Macfie)