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GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil leads risk rally; dollar hits 4-month low

Published 05/12/2009, 08:09 AM
Updated 05/12/2009, 08:16 AM

* MSCI world equity index almost unchanged on day at 238.84

* European stocks gain, oil hits 6-month high

* Dollar hits 4-mth low; yen falls

By Natsuko Waki

LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - European stocks edged higher and oil prices hit a 2009 high on Tuesday as investors chased risky assets further on hopes for improvement in the global economy, pushing the low-yielding dollar to a four-month low.

Oil prices rose as high as $59.68 a barrel, helped by a weaker dollar and hopes for higher demand on the back of an economic recovery.

A smaller-than-expected fall in UK industrial output backed up remarks from leading central bankers who said on Monday the economy is about to turn the corner.

"The underlying environment is fully intact," said Tammo Greetfeld, equity strategist at Unicredit Group.

"The two pillars that kept equity markets moving are still there. One was improving leading indicators, and the other was an earnings season that has been better than feared by the consensus." The MSCI world equity index was steady on the day after hitting a six-month high on Monday. The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.2 percent, erasing early losses.

"There is enough happening in both the market and the data to support a further rally," said Bill O'Neill, portfolio strategist at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management.

Its tactical asset allocation favours emerging market and Asian stocks outside Japan, as well as small cap stocks.

The interbank cost of borrowing three-month dollar, euro and sterling funds fell again to historic lows, reflecting improving money markets. Three-month dollar rates now stand at 0.90563 percent in London.

U.S. crude oil was up 1.7 percent, hitting its highest level since November.

Emerging stocks fell 0.1 percent.

RALLY INTACT

Consolidation in the MSCI index comes after it has risen nearly 40 percent since March. The index is still up 4.6 percent since the start of the year.

"We needed to pinch ourselves -- we had a massive rally in the last two months, but the economy is more like an oil tanker, it takes time to turn around," said David Buik, senior partner at BGC Partners.

Leading central bankers, including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, said on Monday the global economy was at an "inflection point" as growth has already picked up in some countries. He also said monetary authorities should have exit strategies to avoid inflation risks after embarking on unorthodox easing policies.

U.S. stock futures were up around 0.3 percent, pointing to a firmer open on Wall Street later.

The low-yielding dollar fell 0.6 percent against a basket of major currencies to hit its lowest level since early January.

Another low-yielding currency, the yen, erased earlier losses to stand up 0.15 percent on the day at 97.29 per dollar.

The June bund futures were steady on the day. (Additional reporting by Brian Gorman and Simon Falush; Editing by Andy Bruce)

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