GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil, dollar slip as markets wait for Fed

Published 09/21/2010, 03:23 AM
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* Federal Reserve to meet later, weigh more easing

* Nikkei slips as strong yen worries linger

* Aussie jumps on hawkish RBA minutes

* Gold steady near record high

By Alex Richardson

SINGAPORE, Sept 21 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped towards a five-week low on Tuesday and oil fell as traders braced for a Federal Reserve meeting later in the day where policymakers may discuss whether the fragile U.S. economy needs a fresh infusion of cash.

Asian shares were subdued despite a positive lead from Wall Street, where optimistic corporate news from the likes of IBM had pushed the S&P 500 to a four-month closing high.

Leading European shares opened a little lower.

The FTSEurofirst 300, Britain's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX fell 0.1-0.2 percent in early trade. European shares had rallied 1.4 percent on Monday, snapping a four-session losing streak.

"The surge has shifted what was becoming growing bearish sentiment back to the uptrend, but only with the expectation that the Federal Reserve will outline actions aimed at helping the U.S. economy," Raghee Horner, chief market analyst at Autochartist, wrote in a note.

Few market players expect the Fed to make further easing moves just yet -- and the dollar could gain if that view plays out -- but it is seen as much more likely that it will signal its readiness to act if necessary.

Investors will focus on the wording of the Fed's policy statement on the outlook for the U.S. economy and whether it suggests a transition from targeting already rock bottom interest rates to targeting its own balance sheet through quantitative easing -- effectively printing money to buy mortgage bonds and securities.

"Ongoing speculation of the Fed embarking on another round of QE is keeping the U.S. dollar under the cosh," said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC in Hong Kong.

"I'm not sure the market's going to get too much resolution after the FOMC today. Even if they don't signal any imminent QE, the market's speculation is more focused on the next few months."

Japan's Nikkei hit a 7-week high before falling back to close down 0.2 percent as worries about the yen -- whose recent strength is a big problem for the export-led economy -- persisted despite last week's intervention to curb it by the authorities.

"The intervention helped boost the Nikkei last week but fundamentally nothing's changed either in the U.S. or Japanese economy," said Nagayuki Yamagishi, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

"The fact that Japan did the intervention on its own also means there are limits to the long-term impact."

Japanese government bonds edged up following gains in U.S. Treasuries, with any hint that the Federal Reserve may be leaning towards further quantitative easing seen as positive for the U.S. debt market.

MSCI's index of Asian shares outside Japan was flat, with techs and industrials the only two members of its 10 constituent sub-indexes in positive territory.

In Europe, sovereign debt markets will be looking at an Irish auction of up to 1.5 billion euros of 2014 and 2018 bonds.

Doubts about Ireland's fiscal strength helped push the 10-year German/Irish bond yield spread to a euro-lifetime high 425 basis points on Monday.

DOLLAR SELLING

The dollar index against a basket of other major currencies eased 0.2 percent to 81.21, near a five-week low of 80.865 hit last week.

The dollar was little changed at 85.40 yen falling away from its post-intervention high of 85.94 hit on Friday.

Tokyo has not been spotted in fresh currency interventions since its massive yen-selling spree on Wednesday, though Japan's prime minister warned markets last week that authorities are ready to step in to curb yen strength again.

More dollar selling by Japanese exporters is expected towards 86 yen level before the end of September, when many Japanese exporters close their books.

"Share prices are rising, so there's no strong reason to buy the yen at the moment. But on the other hand, there will be yen buying on any dip," said a trader at a major Japanese bank.

The Australian dollar spiked to about $0.9477 after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed its hawkish stance, saying the central bank stood ready to use interest rates to help manage an expected strong pick-up in the economy.

U.S. crude for October delivery fell 71 cents to $74.15 a barrel, in a move magnified by the contract's expiry later in the day, resuming last weeks trend on lingering worries about the health of the U.S. economy, a major factor in demand.

Gold eased to around $1,276.50 an ounce, off the record $1,283.70 hit in the previous session. (To read Reuters Global Investing Blog click on http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting; for the MacroScope Blog click on http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope; for Hedge Fund Blog Hub click on http://blogs.reuters.com/hedgehub)

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