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GLOBAL MARKETS-German, French growth surprise boost stocks, oil

Published 08/13/2009, 07:47 AM
Updated 08/13/2009, 07:51 AM
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* MSCI world equities up 1 pct at one-week high

* German, French return to growth boosts Europe shares

* Euro zone GDP fall smaller than originally expected

* Euro, commodities gain ground; dollar lower after Fed

By Blaise Robinson

PARIS, Aug 13 (Reuters) - World stocks, commodities and the euro rose on Thursday as Germany and France surprised investors by reporting a return to GDP growth, while the dollar dipped after the Federal Reserve's less gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy.

Overall the euro zone remained just in recession in the second quarter, data showed on Thursday, although the 0.1 percent drop in GDP was much smaller than originally expected.

Germany and France provided the big shock by ending their recessions in April-June, earlier than many policymakers and economists had forecast. [nBRQ007480]

Gross domestic product in the euro zone's two biggest economies rose unexpectedly by 0.3 percent in the quarter, boosting hopes of a lasting recovery and sending the euro rising against the dollar and yen. [ID:nLD368819]

"The improving figure for the euro zone GDP is a relatively good news, but it's too early to declare victory," said Marc Touati, chief economist at Global Equities, in Paris.

"The euro zone's economic rebound needs further support. The European Central Bank should keep low rates for a while on refinancing operations, and coordinated stimulus measures and a weaker euro would also help. Without that, we could see the return of the recession."

The euro was up 0.5 percent on the day at $1.4266 , having reached a session high of $1.4280 -- a level last seen on Aug. 7. Against the yen, the euro gained 0.7 percent to 137.37 .

The dollar also slipped against a basket of currencies, down 0.4 percent <.DXY>, as investors switched to riskier assets such as commodities after the Fed on Wednesday gave its clearest statement to date that it saw the U.S. recession nearing an end.

The Fed said the U.S. economy was showing signs of levelling out two years after the onset of the deepest financial crisis in decades and it moved to phase out one emergency measure.

It is the first time since August 2008 that the Fed's statement has not characterised the economy as contracting, weakening, or slowing. But it cautioned the economy remains fragile as employers continue to cut jobs and businesses trim investment. [ID:nN1272730]

EUROPE STOCKS AT 9-MONTH HIGH

World stocks as measured by MSCI <.MIWD00000PUS> reached a one-week high on Thursday, up 1 percent, while Europe's benchmark FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index was up 1.5 percent at 951.34 points -- the index's highest level since early November -- led by banking shares, while mining stocks rallied along with metal prices.

Japan's Nikkei share average <.N225> rose 0.8 percent, driven higher by big auto exporters and tech shares.

Futures for the S&P 500 were up 1.2 percent, Dow Jones futures were up 1.1 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.1 percent.

Oil rose $1.49 to $71.65 a barrel, helped by the upbeat data from Germany and France which fed optimism the global economy was through the worst of the recession, overshadowing bearish U.S. inventory data.

But the day's sharp gain in crude oil futures failed to jog prices out of their long term range, according to technical analysts, although upward momentum would resume if $72 a barrel resistance was breached. [ID:nLD450465]

"Bulls must first get a close above $71.95 to have any case for a retest of the $73.38 high. Bears need a decisive break below the 67.75 - 66.55 zone to seriously damage the case for new highs," said Walter Zimmermann, at technical advisory United Energy.

Metal prices rose, with copper soaring to their highest level since October, on a flurry of investor buying in the wake of the Fed's less gloomy comments on the U.S. economy.

U.S. Treasuries drifted lower in thin European trade after the Fed's comments.

The key 10-year Treasury yield stood at 3.7402 percent, , almost 3 basis points higher but off a high of 3.773 percent hit the previous session. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua and Joe Brock in London; editing by Chris Pizzey)

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