GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar struggles, stocks up on QE speculation

Published 10/06/2010, 07:16 AM
Updated 10/06/2010, 07:20 AM
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* Dollar index hits 8 1/2-mth low, struggles broadly

* Ongoing Fed QE speculation pushes stocks, commodities up

* U.S. Treasury futures hit highest since Jan. 2009

(Updates throughout; previous SINGAPORE)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The dollar hit an 8 1/2-month low while global stocks hit a five-month high on Wednesday as speculation of more U.S. monetary stimulus grew in the aftermath of easing moves by Japan.

U.S. Treasury prices rallied to their highest since early 2009 after Chicago Fed President Charles Evans was quoted on Tuesday as saying the central back should conduct "much more" monetary easing.

The prospect that the Fed and other central banks would have to push more money into their economies has eroded confidence in the dollar and other currencies, raising the appeal of gold, which hit a record high on Wednesday.

At the same time, such measures, which some in the market believe may come as early as next month, would boost the U.S. economy and add to the global recovery, which is positive for stocks and commodities.

"Central banks are moving towards additional stimulus in the United States and Japan, but as important, growth data has been good relative to expectations and there's been an improving trend," said Ronan Carr, European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.

Speculation of more easing has ratcheted higher since the Bank of Japan on Tuesday cut interest rates close to zero and said it would pump cash into the financial system through asset purchases.

By 1040 GMT, the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's value against a currency basket, had slumped to 77.570, its lowest since January.

It fell to an eight-month low against the euro and, at 82.97 yen, was closing in on a 15-year low of 82.87 yen hit last month before Japanese authorities entered the currency market to stem the yen's strength against the dollar.

European equities tracked a climb in Asian shares earlier on Wednesday, pushing the MSCI world equity index up 0.7 percent to 312.65, its highest since April. The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.8 percent to 1,075.45.

U.S. crude oil rose to $83.33, its highest since May.

Spot gold jumped to an all-time high just below $1,350.

"The trust in the FX markets and currencies in general is disappearing. Now with the dollar weakness, it's strong support for gold," a Europe-based trader said.

Direct currency intervention, rock-bottom interest rates and more monetary easing has sparked concerns of a "currency war", prompting a warning from IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn on Tuesday.

U.S. PAYROLLS AHEAD

Analysts said that while the prospect of more quantitative easing was helping to boost some demand for riskier assets, investors were wary of taking their rally too far ahead of U.S jobs data on Friday.

Non-farm payrolls for September will help gauge if the struggling jobs market is improving. A weak reading would crank up anticipation of a swift move by the Fed on QE.

"There's still some concerns that the U.S. may be heading for a double dip, so the payrolls will be crucial in directing the market on how to deal with risk going forward," said Johan Javeus, head of global strategy at SEB in Stockholm.

In the lead-up to the payrolls data, investors were awaiting U.S. data on Challenger U.S. job cuts and the ADP employment report due later on Wednesday. (Additional reporting by Simon Falush and Amanda Cooper; Editing by Patrick Graham)

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