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GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar friendless as Europe inflation climbs

Published 04/29/2011, 08:26 AM
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* Dollar hits 3-year low after euro zone inflation rises

* European stocks and world equities index inch up

* Gold charts new record

* Aussie dollar reaches 29-year high

(Updates with new 3-year low for dollar, new gold high)

By Mike Peacock

LONDON, April 29 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to a three-year low on Friday after inflation data suggested euro zone interest rates will rise again this summer, while stocks paused for breath and gold climbed to a new record.

Analysts see little upside for the dollar following the Federal Reserve's pledge this week to continue with near-zero rates for an "extended period" while central banks in Europe, Asia and Latin America are tightening policy.

Inflation in the 17-nation currency bloc edged up to 2.8 percent in April, well above the 2 percent target ceiling of the European Central Bank, which raised rates for the first time in two years earlier this month. [ID:nLDE73S0UT]

"The inflation numbers support the view that the ECB will deliver another interest rate hike before long. Indeed, although we expect a rate increase at the July meeting, the balance of risks is tilted towards an earlier move," said Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO.

The euro was trading at $1.4870 by 1200 GMT, close to a 17-month peak of $1.4882 hit on Thursday. The single currency also rose to a six-month high against sterling. [FRX/]

With Thursday's weak U.S. GDP and jobless data offering no relief to the dollar, the index <.DXY> which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies fell to its lowest level in three years.

The dollar index fell as low as 72.850 and the greenback also hit a record low against the Swiss franc , while the high-yielding Australian dollar posted a new 29-year high.

The index is down about 7.5 percent this year, making the dollar one of the world's worst-performing assets, and is on track for its biggest weekly fall since mid-January.

Sean Callow, a strategist at Westpac in Sydney, said sentiment towards the dollar was "profoundly bearish with no catalyst for reversal", at least until all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls data next week.

With investors assuming rock bottom U.S. rates will continue to drive money into riskier assets, world equities as measured by the MSCI index <.MIWD00000PUS> are up by some 5 percent over the past two weeks. They inched up again on Friday.

European shares <.FTEU3> gained just 0.1 percent following a six-session winning streak, with volumes crimped by a holiday in Britain for the Royal Wedding.

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a flat or slightly higher open on Wall Street . <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Asset returns since first hints of Fed QE2

http://r.reuters.com/pyc39r

Fed rate hike expectations: http://r.reuters.com/xyz48r

Graphic on silver: http://r.reuters.com/duj88r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

GOLD ASCENDANT

A broad commodity rally, which had showed signs of flagging earlier in the day, picked up momentum again as the dollar plumbed new depths.

Spot gold hit a record for the third straight session, approaching $1,540 an ounce as a falling dollar increased the metal's appeal as a hedge against the U.S. currency.

Bullion was up 0.3 percent at $1,539.15 by 1200 GMT after earlier setting an all-time high of $1,539.60. It has posted records in 10 out of the last 11 sessions.

U.S. crude futures for June climbed 0.35 percent to $113.25 a barrel, reversing earlier losses.

Further gains are expected unless the dollar recovers.

"If the dollar continues to weaken, then it's only likely to boost gold as well as silver as the inverse relationship between the two assets persists," said Ong Yi Ling, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index <.CRB>, a broad indicator of the commodity market, is up nearly 10 percent this year, making it the world's best performing asset group.

* For Reuters Global Investing Blog, click on

http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting

* For the MacroScope Blog, click on

http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope

* For Hedge Fund Blog, click on

http://blogs.reuters.com/hedgehub (Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer, Atul Prakash and William James in London, Ian Chua in Sydney, Umesh Desai and Jongwoo Cheon in Singapore; Editing by Patrick Graham)

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