GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar rises on Fed doubts; stocks fall

Published 10/27/2010, 03:48 AM
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* Fed may buy few hundred bln dollars of Treasuries - WSJ

* WSJ article adds to doubts about a much bigger QE2

* Dollar rises to one-mth high, Asia stocks fall 1.8 pct

* Some Asian central bank chiefs wary; keep options open

By David Fox

HONG KONG, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday on doubts that the Federal Reserve will aggressively buy bonds to pump more money into the economy, triggering profit taking in commodities and Asian equities.

European stock markets followed Asia lower in early trade, with the FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of leading stocks sliding 0.7 percent. S&P 500 futures were down 0.7 percent, pointing to a weaker opening on Wall Street.

The Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve would probably unveil a programme of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth "a few hundred billion dollars", but gave no source for the report. [ID:nTOE69Q02H]

Most currency dealers had expected a Fed policy meeting next week to opt for more quantitative easing -- essentially printing money to buy assets and pull market rates lower -- but some believe the dollar already reflects those expectations and the question of how much easing, and how fast, has kept them edgy.

The dollar index against a basket of major currencies <.DXY>, rose 0.5 percent. The euro was down nearly half a percent on the day at $1.3798 , while the dollar was up 0.41 percent at 81.73 yen .

For a preview of the Fed meeting and possible outcomes, see [ID:nN25168493]

For more on the G20 meeting, click [ID:nTOE69K01G]

Will Japan intervene again? click [ID:nTOE69P01U]

G20's truce on currencies http://r.reuters.com/nan99p

In a Reuters survey earlier this month, U.S. primary dealers' projections for the size of the Fed's expected quantitative easing had ranged from $500 billion to $1.5 trillion. [FED/R]

"The market has had in mind a figure of $1 trillion or more and we had been in a situation where that had led to dollar weakness," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan for Barclays Capital. [ID:nTOE69Q041]

Analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch wrote in a client note that the prevailing market belief was that QE was now close to being fully priced in and anything short of $500 billion in announced purchases over a six-month horizon could disappoint and cause interest rates to rise.

A top concern of policymakers in Asia is that any additional easing by the Fed will send more speculative "hot money" into emerging economies, pushing up their currencies to the point where exports are less competitive and threatening regional economic growth.

Singapore's central bank warned on Wednesday of the risk of a disorderly reverse of such capital inflows if inflation was not contained. Indian and South Korean officials also expressed concerns about the impact of the recent flood of inflows. [ID:nSGC003812]

The Korean won led a selection of emerging Asian currencies lower against the dollar, dipping 0.7 percent to 1,128.95 per dollar by 0630 GMT.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 1.8 percent <.MIAPJ0000PUS>, on track for the biggest daily decline since August, while the MSCI's emerging market stock benchmark <.MSCIEF> was down 1.1 percentas of 0730 GMT.

Japan's Nikkei <.N225> ended marginally higher. [.T]

COMMODITIES SAG AS DOLLAR BOUNCES

The rebounding dollar has caused some investors to bail out of commodity stocks, pulling down the MSCI Asia ex-Japan commodity sector index as raw materials prices slid.

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> was down 1.7 percent, with the China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of top locally listed mainland Chinese companies 2.7 percent lower.

Overnight, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> were little changed while the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 0.3 percent. [.N]

Spot gold edged down 0.56 percent to $1,331.25 an ounce, while crude oil fell 0.54 percent to $82.01 per barrel.

Copper traded on the London Metal Exchange was down 1 percent to $8,424 a tonne , essentially giving back the week's gains before Wednesday. (Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in SYDNEY and Manuela Badawy in NEW YORK and Charlotte Cooper in TOKYO; Editing by Kim Coghill) (david.fox@thomsonreuters.com; +852 28431649; Reuters Messaging: david.fox.reuters.com@reuters.net)

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